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by Baylion

2013 Super Rugby Round 15 Preview

May 22, 2013 in Uncategorized

Some BIG matches coming up this weekend as team jockey for position at the top of the combined log and at the top of the various conference logs while a few teams are trying to rescue their seasons. The Chiefs take on the Crusaders at home, the Blues play the Brumbies at Eden Park, the Bulls and the Sharks fight it out in Durbs and the Stormers must try and salvage something against the Reds at Newlands.

My Superbru:

Last week: 4/7
Overall: 56/88
Percentage: 63.64%

Super Rugby:

Fri, 24 May
Chiefs v Crusaders: SAST 09h35 – Waikato Stadium, Hamilton

This is a tough one to call with the Chiefs scraping wins each week and the Saders on the march, especially now that Kieran Read is back. The Chiefs have lost their way a bit in recent weeks trying to run everything and making too many mistakes but they have been winning. The Crusaders, on the other hand, has stepped it up and is the one Kiwi side that actually look to dominate up front and not to run everything. This up front dominance will work in the Crusaders’ favour this weekend.

CRUSADERS to beat Chiefs by 6

Chiefs: 15 Robbie Robinson, 14 Patrick Osborne, 13 Charlie Ngatai, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Matt Vant Leven, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke (captain), 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Hika Elliot, 1 Pauliasi Manu.
Replacements: 16 Mahonri Schwalger, 17 Toby Smith, 18 Michael Fitzgerald, 19 Sam Cane, 20 Augustine Pulu, 21 Dan Waenga, 22 Lelia Masaga.

Crusaders: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Tom Marshall, 13 Ryan Crotty, 12 Tom Taylor, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Kieran Read (captain), 7 Matt Todd, 6 George Whitelock, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Replacements: 16 Ben Funnell/Laurence Corlett, 17 Joe Moody, 18 Dominic Bird, 19 Luke Whitelock, 20 Willi Heinz, 21 Robbie Fruean, 22 Telusa Veianu.

Rebels v Waratahs: SAST 11h40 – AAMI Park, Melbourne

Yes, the Rebels beat the Stormers last week, not really due to their own brilliance but rather due to the Stormers incompetence and I don’t see them beating a Waratahs team that’s on the rise.

WARATAHS to beat Rebels by 15

Rebels: 15 Jason Woodward, 14 Tom English, 13 Mitch Inman, 12 Rory Sidey, 11 Lachlan Mitchell, 10 Bryce Hegarty, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Scott Higginbotham (captain), 7 Scott Fuglistaller, 6 Jarrod Saffy, 5 Luke Jones, 4 Hugh Pyle, 3 Laurie Weeks, 2 Ged Robinson, 1 Nic Henderson.
Replacements: 16 Shota Horie, 17 Paul Alo-Emile, 18 Cadeyrn Neville, 19 Gareth Delve, 20 Nic Stirzaker, 21 James Hilgendorf, 22 Kimami Sitauti.

Waratahs: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Peter Betham, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Matt Lucas, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dave Dennis (captain), 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Sitaleki Timani, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 John Ulugia, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Luke Holmes, 17 Paddy Ryan, 18 Will Skelton, 19 Mitchell Chapman, 20 Brendan McKibbin, 21 Rob Horne, 22 Tom Kingston.

Sat, 25 May
Blues v Brumbies: SAST 09h35 – Eden Park, Auckland

Another tough call as two teams that have been inconsistent take each other on, the Blues to stay in the race, the Brumbies to maintain a grip on the top Aussie spot. The Brumbies started the season in good nick but have only won three of their last eight games. The Blues haven’t been able to win more than two matches in row but fortunately for them they lost last weekend so another win is on the cards.

BLUES to beat Brumbies by 6

Force v Highlanders: SAST 11h40 – NIB Stadium, Perth

The battle for the Wooden Spoon. The Force have the forwards to dominate up front and to cut the Highlanders back off from good running ball and if their defence holds they should take this one.

FORCE to beat Highlanders by 5

Kings v Cheetahs: SAST 15h00 – Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, Port Elizabeth

After a good win against the Highlanders last week the Kings are feeling cocky, if one read the comments by Cheeky Watson in the media, but the Cheetahs should be in a good space after not the best but still a good win over the Reds and with their defence back on track they shouldn’t have too many problems beating the Kings. A five pointer is another matter as the Cheetahs attack hasn’t been all that great this season but they will be happy with a win.

CHEETAHS to beat Southern Kings by 15

Kings: 15 SP Marais, 14 Siyanda Grey, 13 Ronnie Cooke, 12 Andries Strauss, 11 Marcello Sampson, 10 Demetri Catrakilis, 9 Shaun Venter, 8 Cornell du Preez, 7 Luke Watson (captain), 6 Wimpie van der Walt, 5 David Bulbring, 4 Steve Sykes, 3 Kevin Buys, 2 Bandise Maku, 1 Schalk Ferreira.
Replacements: 16 Virgile Lacombe, 17 Grant Kemp, 18 Rynier Bernado, 19 Jacques Engelbrecht, 20 Nicolas Vergallo, 21 Shane Gates, 22 George Whitehead.

Cheetahs15 Hennie Daniller, 14 Ryno Benjamin, 13 Johann Sadie, 12 Robert Ebersohn, 11 Willie le Roux, 10 Elgar Watts, 9 Piet van Zyl, 8 Philip van der Walt, 7 Lappies Labuschagne, 6 Heinrich Brüssow, 5 Francois Uys, 4 Lodewyk de Jager, 3 Lourens Adriaanse, 2 Adriaan Strauss (c), 1 Coenie Oosthuizen.
Subs: 16 Ryno Barnes, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Rynhardt Landman, 19 Boom Prinsloo, 20 Sarel Pretorius, 21 Riaan Smit, 22 Ryno Benjamin.

Stormers v Reds: SAST 17h05 – DHL Newlands Stadium, Cape Town

What can one say? I just don’t see the Stormers pulling this one off, especially not with the latest spate of injuries that sees them without Fourie, Bekker, de Jongh, Malherbe and Cilliers. A combination of injuries and struggling to implement a new game plan has derailed the Stormers’ campaign this year and they are only playing for pizzas at the moment.

REDS to beat Stormers by 9

Stormers15 Joe Pietersen, 14 Gio Aplon, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Louis Schreuder, 8 Nizaam Carr, 7 Don Armand, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Eben Etzebeth, 4 Gerbrand Grobler, 3 Brok Harris, 2 Tiaan Liebenberg, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Subs: 16 Martin Bezuidenhout, 17 Chris Heiberg, 18 Marius Coetzer, 19 Rohan Kitshoff, 20 Dewaldt Duvenage, 21 Gary van Aswegen, 22 Gerhard van den Heever.

Sharks v Bulls: SAST 19h10 – Mr Price Kings Park, Durban

The Bulls will look to cement their top of the conference position and a loss by the Chiefs could see them top of the log. The Sharks will have some old hands back in the pack and the up front battle could be epic but at the back the Sharks just don’t have the firepower to derail the Bulls at this stage.

BULLS to beat Sharks by 12

Bulls15 Jürgen Visser, 14 Akona Ndungane, 13 JJ Engelbrecht, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bjorn Basson, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies (c), 7 Dewald Potgieter, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Juandré Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 1 Dean Greyling.
Subs: 16 Willie Wepener, 17 Frik Kirsten, 18 Grant Hattingh, 19 Arno Botha, 20 Jano Vermaak, 21 Louis Fouché/Jan Serfontein, 22 Lionel Mapoe.

Top 5 players per position (UDT Fantasy League)

Outside backs: Frank Halai, Jesse Mogg, Henry Speight, Raymond Ruhle, Charles Piutau
Centres: Israel Folau, Robert Ebersohn, Joseph Tomane, Johann Sadie, Ben Tapuai
Flyhalf (kickers): Morne Steyn, Quade Cooper, Christian Lealiifano, BEauden Barrett, Patrick Lambie
Scrumhalf: TJ Perenara, Nick White, Piri Weepu, Will Genia, Piet va Zyl
Loose Forwards: Ben Mowen, Scott Higgenbotham, Jack Schatz, Michael Hooper, Liam Messam, George Whitelock
Locks: Hugh Pyle, Brodie Retallick, Andries Bekker, Rob Simmons, Francois Uys
Front Rows: Ged Robinson, Ben Tameifuna, Coenie Oosthuizen, Wyatt Crockett, Adriaan Strauss

Top Try Scorers

1. Frank Halai (Blues)    8
2. Henry Speight (Brumbies)    7
2. Israel Folau (Waratahs)    7
4. Scott Higginbotham (Rebels)    6
4. Tim Nanai-Williams (Chiefs)    6
6. Alfie Mafi (Force)    5
6. Cam Crawford (Waratahs)    5
6. Gareth Anscombe (Chiefs)    5
6. Hugh Pyle (Rebels)    5
6. Jesse Mogg (Brumbies)    5
6. Julian Savea (Hurricanes)    5
6. Raymond Rhule (Cheetahs)    5
6. Rod Davies (Reds)    5
6. TJ Perenara (Hurricanes)    5
15. Bernard Foley (Waratahs)    4
15. Ged Robinson (Rebels)    4
15. Hosea Gear (Highlanders)    4
15. Kade Poki (Highlanders)    4
15. Peter Betham (Waratahs)    4
15. Willie le Roux (Cheetahs)    4

Most Try Assists
1. Bernard Foley (Waratahs)    11
2. Aaron Cruden (Chiefs)    7
3. Beauden Barrett (Hurricanes)    5
3. James O’Connor (Rebels)    5
3. Quade Cooper (Reds)    5
3. Rene Ranger (Blues)    5
3. Will Genia (Reds)    5
8. Christian Lealiifano (Brumbies)    4
8. Patrick Lambie (Sharks)    4
10. Elton Jantjies (Stormers)    3
10. Francis Saili (Blues)    3
10. Gareth Anscombe (Chiefs)    3
10. Israel Folau (Waratahs)    3
10. Matt Toomua (Brumbies)    3
10. Morne Steyn (Bulls)    3
10. Nic White (Brumbies)    3
10. Nick Phipps (Rebels)    3
10. Winston Stanley (Force)    3
19. Aaron Smith (Highlanders)    2
19. Phillip van der Walt (Cheetahs)    2

Most Linebreak Assists
1. Aaron Cruden (Chiefs)    13
2. Bernard Foley (Waratahs)    11
3. Israel Folau (Waratahs)    7
3. Quade Cooper (Reds)    7
5. Elton Jantjies (Stormers)    5
5. James O’Connor (Rebels)    5
5. Rene Ranger (Blues)    5
5. Will Genia (Reds)    5
9. Ben Smith (Highlanders)    4
9. Francis Saili (Blues)    4
9. Ma’a Nonu (Highlanders)    4
9. Matt Toomua (Brumbies)    4
9. Nic White (Brumbies)    4
9. Nick Phipps (Rebels)    4
15. Christian Lealiifano (Brumbies)    3
15. Daniel Carter (Crusaders)    3
15. Gareth Anscombe (Chiefs)    3
15. Jackson Willison (Blues)    3
15. Liam Messam (Chiefs)    3
15. Ryan Crotty (Crusaders)    3

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by Baylion

Stormers broken

May 21, 2013 in Uncategorized

The way things are going at the Stormers they might as well draft the whole Lions team to finish out the season for them. This will give the Lions players invaluable match practice before their Wooden Spoon Knockouts against the Kings/Stormers at the end of the season.

The Stormers drafted the Pumas utility forward, Marius Coetzer, who played Super Rugby for the Lions in 2012, as cover at lock and flank.

After returning from their tour downunder the Stormers announced a number of new injuries to add to their woes.

The full DHL Stormers injury update is as follows:

New injuries (from the Rebels match):

- Hooker/flank Deon Fourie (fractured ribs – two-three weeks)
- Hooker Scarra Ntubeni (hamstring tear, grade two – two-three weeks)
- Prop Pat Cilliers (ankle, grade two ligament tear – minimum six weeks)
- Prop Frans Malherbe (ankle, syndesmosis tear – will be operated on tomorrow, not less than ten weeks – could be out long-term)
- Lock Andries Bekker (back, grade one disc tear – six-eight weeks)
- Centre Juan de Jongh (fracture in his ring finger – high up in the joint – minimum three weeks)

Back from injury this week:

- Hooker Tiaan Liebenberg (elbow)

Already out/long-term injuries:

- Lock De Kock Steenkamp (chest – needs another week or two)
- Lock Ruan Botha (ankle – fit for the Currie Cup)
- Flank Michael Rhodes (ankle, syndesmosis – should be back by the last week or two of league action)
- Flank Rynhardt Elstadt (knee – should be back by the last week or two of league action)
- No.8 Duane Vermeulen (knee – should be back by the last week or two of league action)
- Flyhalf Peter Grant (ankle, syndesmosis – definitely not back before the June Test break)
- Fullback Jaco Taute (knee – out for the rest of the season)

Long-term injuries – players that have not played yet in 2013:
- Prop Deon Carstens (retirement – neck)
- Flank Schalk Burger (calf, illness)

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by Baylion

The myth of the Stormers defence

May 21, 2013 in Uncategorized

The Stormers have become known for their resolute defence over the last few years and rightly so as they have conceded the fewest tries every year since 2010. This could lead one to the erroneous conclusion that their players are necessarily good defenders or tacklers, which is not the case, it is the Stormers’ defensive system that makes them a good defensive side rather than the individual defenders.

It is not that they don’t miss tackles or don’t make many ineffective tackles but rather that they cover the attack line of the opposition well, normally with more than one defender making the tackle. We’ve all seen them standing across the field like a Hadrian Wall on defence, leaving no gaps for the attackers to exploit.

FYI I pulled the tackle stats from Rugby Stats on their team and individual stats. There are two stats that look at the team and player’s effectiveness, missed tackles and ineffective tackles. Missed tackles are obvious, ineffective tackles are when the tackled player still completes a pass, an offload or scores a try even though he has been tackled.

All these stats are fairly meaningless, except when you are in a pub argument, as the stats that really matter in the end are the team’s log points and position.

Note: These are raw stats and do not take into account which teams were played, which players were tackled (obviously a back tackling a lock has less chance of success than a lock tackling a lock), etc.

Team Stats:

Statistically the Stormers is the most effective team when it comes to tackles with the lowest combined stat for missed and ineffective tackles but are worse than the Sharks and the Kings for missed tackles only.

Attempted Made Made % Ineffective Ineffective % Missed Missed % Combo %
Bulls 1792 1436 80.13% 92 5.13% 264 14.73% 19.87%
Cheetahs 2134 1715 80.37% 131 6.14% 288 13.50% 19.63%
Kings 2076 1672 80.54% 140 6.74% 265 12.76% 19.51%
Sharks 1709 1400 81.92% 122 7.14% 182 10.65% 17.79%
Stormers 1854 1525 82.25% 90 4.85% 239 12.89% 17.75%

 

Individual Stats:

I have left out some players because of limited game time, player like Eben Etzebeth, Jaco Taute, Scarra Ntubeni, etc.

Missed Tackles:
The missed tackle stat is the obvious one, a player slips off a tackle, gets run over, gets bumped, whatever and either the opponent runs on or someone else has to tackle him.

With 37.5% missed tackles Gerhard van den Heever is the worst tackler in the Stormers side and Rynhardt Elstadt (10.17%) the best while in the backline, excluding scrumhalves, Jean de Villiers (14.41%) misses the least tackles. It is interesting to see that the Stormers backline players are generally poor tacklers with only JdV and Bryan Habana under 20%.

Made Ineffective Missed Total Missed %
Gerhard van den Heever 10 0 6 16 37.5
Gio Aplon 26 5 11 42 26.19
Gary van Aswegen 44 4 17 65 26.15
Damian de Allende 24 0 8 32 25
Joe Pietersen 33 4 12 49 24.49
Juan de Jongh 57 6 17 80 21.25
Elton Jantjies 38 0 10 48 20.83
Bryan Habana 41 2 9 52 17.31
Jean de Villiers 92 9 17 118 14.41
Nic Groom 46 4 8 58 13.79
de Kock Steenkamp 99 2 16 117 13.68
Michael Rhodes 24 2 4 30 13.33
Siya Kolisi 138 7 20 165 12.12
Andries Bekker 107 5 15 127 11.81
Deon Fourie 110 5 14 129 10.85
Pat Cilliers 66 2 8 76 10.53
Louis Schreuder 8 1 1 10 10
Duane Vermeulen 104 6 12 122 9.84
Nizaam Carr 35 2 4 41 9.76
Dewaldt Duvenhage 44 2 4 50 8
Frans Malherbe 11 75 2 6 83 7.23
Steven Kitshoff 10 109 6 7 122 5.74
Rynhardt Elstadt 8 106 7 5 118 4.24

 

Missed and Ineffective Tackles Combined:

The missed and ineffective tackle stats rates a player on his effectiveness as a defender. Based on the combined missed and ineffective tackle stats Gio Aplon (38.1%) is the Stormers worst defender while Frans Malherbe (9.64%) is the best. It is with great pleasure that I can announce that, statistically, Elton Jantjies (20.83%) is the Stormers best backline defender, excluding the scrumhalves. :)

Made Ineffective Missed Total Combo%
Gio Aplon 26 5 11 42 38.1
Gerhard van den Heever 10 0 6 16 37.5
Joe Pietersen 33 4 12 49 32.65
Gary van Aswegen 44 4 17 65 32.31
Juan de Jongh 57 6 17 80 28.75
Damian de Allende 24 0 8 32 25
Jean de Villiers 92 9 17 118 22.03
Bryan Habana 41 2 9 52 21.15
Elton Jantjies 38 0 10 48 20.83
Nic Groom 46 4 8 58 20.69
Michael Rhodes 24 2 4 30 20
Louis Schreuder 8 1 1 10 20
Siya Kolisi 138 7 20 165 16.36
Andries Bekker 107 5 15 127 15.75
de Kock Steenkamp 99 2 16 117 15.38
Duane Vermeulen 104 6 12 122 14.75
Deon Fourie 110 5 14 129 14.73
Nizaam Carr 35 2 4 41 14.63
Pat Cilliers 66 2 8 76 13.16
Dewaldt Duvenhage 44 2 4 50 12
Steven Kitshoff 109 6 7 122 10.66
Rynhardt Elstadt 106 7 5 118 10.17
Frans Malherbe 75 2 6 83 9.64

 

There you have it. Use it, don’t use it.

Also read: The Stormers will never be Super Rugby champions

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by Baylion

2013 Super Rugby Round 14 Review

May 20, 2013 in Uncategorized

The competition is getting interesting, not so much because of the quality of the matches but more because of the teams making their moves to contest for the top spots and other teams falling by the wayside.

In the SA conference the Bulls have established themselves at the top of the conference with the Cheetahs vying for a play-off spot while the Stormers are committing ritual Harakiri.

In the Kiwi conference the Chiefs are still tops but the Crusaders are making a run for it while the the Clan is all but ensured of the Wooden Spoon title.

In the Aussie conference the Brumbies and the Reds are struggling to establish dominance while the Force fight valiant but losing fights at the bottom.

This weekend’s matches were marked (marred?) by some very questionable TMO decisions.

In other news the Golden Lions won their fifth Vodacom Cup by comprehensively beating their Lions franchise partners, the Pumas and have now won more senior rugby trophies the last three years than the Bulls, Cheetahs, Kings and Sharks combined (Just thought I’d get a dig in :) )

My Superbru:

This week: 4/7
Overall: 56/88
Percentage: 63.64%

Super Rugby:

Hurricanes v Chiefs: 12 – 17 (Did not watch)

The Chiefs are scraping through wins to stay at the top of the log, this time away from home. The sign of a champion?

Rebels v Stormers: 29 – 21

A questionable TMO decision gave the Rebels a penalty try near the end that cost the Stormers their losing bonus point but even more questionable decisions by captain Jean de Villiers not to take points on offer really cost them the match. That and losing Elton Jantjies to a head knock after 60 minutes, which resulted in the Stormers attack dying a very quick death.

Accept it Stormers fans, without Jantjies your team cannot score tries. In the three matches the Stormers allowed him to play his game they scored 13 of their 20 tries so get over the fact that he missed his kicks against the Bulls in the first match of the season!

Force v Sharks: 13 – 23

A purple patch by fullback Riaan Viljoen livend up a game that was little more than a “getjommel” between two desperate sides. At least the win allowed me to remove the “Save The Sharks” image from my blog :)

Crusaders v Blues: 23 – 3 (Did not watch)

The Crusaders are starting to threaten and are looking to be contenders again.

Waratahs v Brumbies: 28 – 22 (Did not watch)

Are the Tahs on their way up or the Brumbies on their way down? The Tahs have won four of their last five games while the Brumbies have won only three of their last eight games.

Bulls v Highlanders: 35 – 18

The Bulls have moved into the second spot on the log and is on track for a home semi final. Two questionable TMO decisions, one for the Bulls and one against, marred the match but the Bulls are ticking over like a well-oiled machine at the moment and the Clan were never really in the game and two late tries make them look better than they really were.

One disturbing thing, though, young Jan Serfontein is being developed into a battering ram #12 and the danger is that his skill and talent might just be coached out of him.

Cheetahs v Reds: 27 – 13

It happens that the better team on the day end up losing the match and that’s what happened here. Apart from two individual tries by scrumhalf Piet van Zyl the Cheetahs offered nothing on attack but was brilliant on defence. Numerous breaks and runs for the tryline by the Reds were foiled by desperate last moment tackles and one cannot fault the defensive effort of the Cheetahs but hopes that they find their attacking nous soon. Bubbling just under the top 6 on the log the Cheetahs, with a bye in hand, will look to improve that position in the final stretch of the competition to get into the play-offs, something that looked farfetched before the season started.

Vodacom Cup Finals:

Pumas vs Golden Lions: 28 – 42 (Did not watch)

A slow start by the Golden Lions saw them trail 10-0 with a man in the sinbin before they started to fight back and eventually win their fifth Vodacom Cup quite comfortably.

See also The value of the Vodacom Cup win for the Lions

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by Baylion

The Stormers will never be Super Rugby champions

May 17, 2013 in Uncategorized

As long as the Stormers insist in playing their uber-defensive style of rugby they will not win the Super Rugby competition. Letting in the least number of tries in the competition is not the way to Super Rugby success.

A strong defence that allows a team to concede the minimum number of tries will, however, ensure that the team end in the top six and the play-offs. Only once since Super Rugby went professional in 1996 have the team that conceded the least number of tries ended outside the top six, in 2003 the Reds finished 10th.

While the “best” defensive team is virtually guaranteed of a play-off spot it’s chance of winning the competition is almost zero. Only twice since 1996 has the team that conceded the least number of tries won the competition, the Crusaders in 2008 and the Blues in 2003, even though they have often finished in the top two spots guaranteeing them home semi finals, a total of 8 times in fact and they’ve been finalists six times.

But if the Blues and the Crusader could do it the Stormers can too. Right? Wrong!

And the reason is that in 2003 and 2008, when the Blues and the Crusaders were the best defensive sides the were also the best attacking sides, scoring the most tries in those years.

In fact, nine times since 1996 the Super Rugby champion was also the team that scored the most tries in the regular season and the lowest try scoring ranking for a champion has been 5th.

The moral of the story is that Super Rugby champions are teams that are balanced on attack and defence but, first and foremost, they are attacking sides. The champions of the past have ranked mostly in the top 6 and as low as 9th on defence, but never lower than 5th on attack.

The Stormers, before the season started, professed that they will be looking to score more tries this year but that goal has gone of the rails. They started shakily against the Bulls, went defensive against the Sharks, then went all out against the Chiefs and the Brumbies scoring seven tries but conceding five and got such a fright that they reined in their attack until it dwindled to virtually nothing.

Now they are back to the being the best defensive side and in their comfort zone, a zone that will bring them no trophies unless they are prepared to break out and up their attacking prowess their supporters will have to be satisfied with a good but not good enough team.

Just as an example of the Stormers’ mindset: For the game against the Rebels Allister Coetzee selected Elton Jantjies to “spark the attack” but at the same time hobbled him, “He must make sure that there is a low error-rate”. This is telling him to be creative but not to take any risks. It seems Coetzee has learned nothing from his chat with the former All Black coach Graham Henry.

I wonder if the same will show up in the Currie Cup stats. For interest I looked at 2012, which WP won, and saw they had the second best defence, behind the Sharks, but they also had the second best attack, also behind the Sharks.

Insert:  The post was written before today’s match against the Rebels. Interesting to note that 13 of the Stormers 20 tries were scored when Elton Jantjies was given the freedom to play his game rather than forced into the Stormers conservative game plan. However, playing a more attacking game is no excuse for the poor defence that lead to Higgenbotham and Pyle’s tries.

Note: In this post I equate Defence with tries let in and Attack with tries scored.

Super Rugby since 1996

Tries let in

Year #1 #2 Champion Least Tries
2012 Stormers 21 Chiefs 30 Chiefs 2nd Stormers 21 1st
2011 Reds 32 Stormers 18 Reds 6th Stormers 18 2nd
2010 Bulls 32 Stormers 17 Bulls 6th Stormers 17 2nd Finalist
2009 Bulls 33 Chiefs 30 Bulls 6th Waratahs 21 5th
2008 Crusaders 20 Waratahs 21 Crusaders 1 st Crusaders 20 1st Finalist
2007 Sharks 18 Bulls 22 Bulls 5th Brumbies 16 5th
2006 Crusaders 19 Hurricanes 23 Crusaders 2nd Waratahs 17 3rd
2005 Crusaders 34 Waratahs 19 Crusaders 8th Waratahs 19 2nd Finalist
2004 Brumbies 29 Crusaders 39 Brumbies 2nd Reds 28 10th
2003 Blues 19 Crusaders 26 Blues 1st Blues 19 1st Finalist
2002 Crusaders 29 Waratahs 33 Crusaders 4th Highlanders 20 4th
2001 Brumbies 17 Sharks 24 Brumbies 1st Brumbies 17 1st Finalist
Cats 17 3rd
2000 Brumbies 12 Crusaders 33 Crusaders 7th Brumbies 12 1st Finalist
1999 Reds 18 Stormers 26 Crusaders 9th Brumbies 14 5th
1998 Blues 33 Crusaders 31 Crusaders 4th Reds 22 5th
1997 Blues 30 Brumbies 36 Blues 2nd Crusaders 24 6th
1996 Reds 26 Blues 41 Blues 8th Bulls 23 3rdv

 

Tries scored:

Year #1 #2 Champion Most Tries
2012 Stormers 28 Chiefs 47 Chiefs 3rd Hurricanes 58 8th
2011 Reds 45 Stormers 33 Reds 3rd Waratahs 48 5th
2010 Bulls 47 Stormers 36 Bulls 1st Bulls 47 1st
Blues 47 7th
2009 Bulls 37 Chiefs 43 Bulls 5th Hurricanes 49 3rd
2008 Crusaders 49 Waratahs 33 Crusaders 1st Crusaders 49 1st
2007 Sharks 41 Bulls 45 Bulls 4th Crusaders 47 3rd
2006 Crusaders 47 Hurricanes 39 Crusaders 1st Crusaders 47 1st
2005 Crusaders 61 Waratahs 38 Crusaders 1st Crusaders 61 1st
2004 Brumbies 55 Crusaders 37 Brumbies 1st Brumbies 55 1st
2003 Blues 53 Crusaders 45 Blues 1 st Blues 53 1st
2002 Crusaders 55 Waratahs 41 Crusaders 1st Crusaders 55 1st
2001 Brumbies 39 Sharks 34 Brumbies 1st Brumbies 39 1st
2000 Brumbies 48 Crusaders 43 Crusaders 2nd Brumbies 48 1st
1999 Reds 20 Stormers 29 Crusaders 5th Cats 37 11th
1998 Blues 49 Crusaders 37 Crusaders 3rd Blues 49 1st
1997 Blues 56 Brumbies 55 Blues 1st Blues 56 1st
1996 Reds 32 Blues 55 Blues 1st Blues 55 1st
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2013 Super Rugby Round 14 Preview

May 15, 2013 in Uncategorized

With only three weeks before the winter tests and only six games left in the regular season of Super Rugby the push is on for the top six spots on the log. Only 16 points separate the top 11 teams and only four points between the top five with the result that every game from now on virtually becomes a knockout game pushing the losers down, further from the play-offs.

Inconsistent performances by the log leaders, poor performances by the South African sides and with the Crusaders and the Waratahs seemingly on the rise an exciting weekend of Super Rugby lays ahead and a difficult one to predict the outcomes as most of the matches could be close battles that can go either way.

In the Vodacom Cup the final between the Pumas and the Golden Lions is the Lions last game before the June test break and their final stretch of preparation matches starting with a game against Samoa.

My Superbru:

Last week: 3/6
Overall: 52/81
Percentage: 64.20%

Super Rugby:

Fri, 17 May
Hurricanes v Chiefs: SAST 09h35 – Westpac Stadium, Wellington

After a good stretch from week 3 the Hurricanes have gone off the boil a bit while the Chiefs have been struggling with their form and they have scraped wins against lesser sides like the Rebels and the Force. The Canes isn’t the attacking side of last year while their defence is really not up to standard either and with Conrad Smith out they have lost a valuable playmaker. The Chiefs however haven’t been the champion side of earlier in the season and their defence has been poor in recent weeks but they still scraped out wins.

Chiefs by 6

Hurricanes15 Andre Taylor, 14 Alapati Leiua, 13 Reynold Lee-Lo, 12 Tim Bateman, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Victor Vito (c), 7 Jack Lam, 6 Faifili Levave, 5 Jason Eaton, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Ben May, 2 Ash Dixon, 1 Ben Franks.
Subs: 16 Reggie Goodes, 17 Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 18 James Broadhurst, 19 Brad Shields, 20 Chris Smylie, 21 Tusi Pisi, 22 James Marshall.

Chiefs: 15 Robbie Robinson, 14 Lelia Masaga, 13 Charlie Ngatai, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Matt Vant Leven, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke (captain), 3 Ben Afeaki, 2 Hika Elliot, 1 Pauliasi Manu.
Replacements: 16 Mahonri Schwalger, 17 Ben Tameifuna, 18 Michael Fitzgerald, 19 Nick Crosswell, 20 Augustine Pulu, 21 Dan Waenga, 22 Save Tokula.

Rebels v Stormers: SAST 11h40 – AAMI Park, Melbourne

Normally this should be a piece of cake for the Stormers but they have struggled to decide on a game plan and nothing has come of their promised new attacking game. The Rebels, on the other hand, may not have won many games but the have lost five games by less than seven points and have in recent weeks pushed the Crusaders, Chiefs and Blues close. They might just be ready for another win but without Kurtley Beale and James O’Connor they just don’t have the strike power at the back to break the Stormers defence.

Stormers by 6

Rebels: 15 Jason Woodward, 14 Tom English, 13 Mitch Inman, 12 Rory Sidey, 11 Lachlan Mitchell, 10 Bryce Hegarty, 9 Nic Stirzaker, 8 Scott Higginbotham (captain), 7 Scott Fuglistaller, 6 Jarrod Saffy, 5 Cadeyrn Neville, 4 Hugh Pyle, 3 Laurie Weeks, 2 Ged Robinson, 1 Nic Henderson.
Replacements: 16 Shota Horie, 17 Paul Alo-Emile, 18 Luke Jones, 19 Gareth Delve, 20 Jordy Reid, 21 Nick Phipps, 22 Kimami Sitauti.

Stormers: 15. Joe Pietersen, 14. Gio Aplon, 13. Juan de Jongh, 12. Jean de Villiers (captain), 11. Bryan Habana, 10. Elton Jantjies, 9. Louis Schreuder, 8. Nizaam Carr, 7. Siya Kolisi, 6. Deon Fourie, 5. Andries Bekker, 4. Eben Etzebeth, 3. Pat Cilliers, 2. Scarra Ntubeni, 1. Steven Kitshoff
Replacements: 16. Martin Bezuidenhout, 17. Frans Malherbe, 18. Gerbrandt Grobler, 19. Don Armand, 20. Nic Groom, 21. Gary van Aswegen, 22. Gerhard van den Heever

Force v Sharks: SAST 13h45 – NIB Stadium, Perth

The Force has the forwards to compete with any side in the competition but just don’t have the backs to use the possession they gain. Since their poor start the have beaten the Reds and the Crusaders, and have drawn with the Reds in their last derby match, while they’ve earned losing bonus points in four of their last five losses. Up against a Sharks team struggling with injuries and unable to get their backs into the attack the Force must be in with a chance. However, for the first time in quite a while the Sharks is able to field an unchanged match 22 with a slight reshuffle between the starting XV and the bench and I can’t bring myself to predict a win for the Force.

Sharks by 5

The Sharks: 15 Riaan Viljoen, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 JP Pietersen, 12 Meyer Bosman, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Patrick Lambie, 9 Charl McLeod, 8 Keegan Daniel (Captain), 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Franco van der Merwe, 4 Anton Bresler, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Kyle Cooper, 1 JC Janse van Rensburg.
Replacements: 16 Monde Hadebe, 17 Wiehahn Herbst, 18 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 19 Derick Minnie / Tera Mtembu, 20 Jean Deysel, 21 Tian Meyer, 22 Piet Lindeque.

Sat, 18 May
Crusaders v Blues: SAST 09h35 – AMI Stadium, Addington Christchurch

Both the Crusaders and the Blues have been inconsistent in their performances, great one week and poor the next and it will depend which of the teams bring their A game on Saturday. On paper the Crusaders should be too much for the Blues but players like Rene Ranger, Charles Piutau and Frank Halai can turn the match. However, given that the game is in Christchurch I’m going with a close win for the Saders.

Crusaders by 6

Crusaders: 15 Tom Taylor, 14 Tom Marshall, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Kieran Read (captain), 7 Matt Todd, 6 George Whitelock, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Replacements: 16 Ben Funnell,  17  Joe Moody,  18  Dominic Bird,  19  Luke Whitelock,  20  Willi Heinz,  21  Adam Whitelock, 22  Israel Dagg.

Blues 15 Charles Piutau, 14 Frank Halai, 13 Rene Ranger, 12 Jackson Willison, 11 George Moala, 10 Chris Noakes, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Peter Saili, 7 Luke Braid, 6 Steven Luatua, 5 Ali Williams (c), 4 Culum Retallick, 3 Angus Ta’avao, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tim Perry.
Subs: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Sam Prattley, 18 Anthony Boric, 19 Brendon O’Connor, 20 Jamison Gibson-Park, 21 Baden Kerr, 22 Francis Saili.

Waratahs v Brumbies: SAST 11h40 – ANZ Stadium, Sydney

The Waratahs seem to have gotten their act together, have been able to be more consistent in their team selection as the injuries subsided and are on the rise while the Brumbies are coming off a bye, lost to the Crusaders in their last match and are playing away from home, all of which might give the Tahs the win. But the Brumbies have been one of the few consistent sides in the competition, most of the time anyway, and have the defensive and attacking structures in place to take it.

Brumbies by 6

Waratahs: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Cam Crawford, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Rob Horne, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Brendan McKibbin, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dave Dennis, 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Sitaleki Timani, 3 Paddy Ryan, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 John Ulugia, 17 Sekope Kepu, 18 Will Skelton, 19 Mitchell Chapman, 20 Matt Lucas, 21 Berrick Barnes, 22 Peter Betham

Brumbies 15 Jesse Mogg, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Christian Lealiifano, 11 Joseph Tomane, 10 Matt Toomua, 9 Nic White, 8 Ben Mowen, 7 George Smith, 6 Peter Kimlin, 4 Scott Fardy, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Scott Sio.
Subs: 16. Siliva Siliva, 17 Ruan Smith, 18 Fotu Auelua, 19 Colby Faingaa, 20 Ian Prior, 21 Pat McCabe, 22 Robbie Coleman.

Bulls v Highlanders: SAST 17h05 – Loftus Versveld, Pretoria

The Highlanders are really due for a win but after their loss to the Kings there is no way that I am going to predict one. Not against the Bulls the way they played in their last few matches and definitely not against Bulls at Loftus. The Bulls seem to be back in a groove and are playing some good, balanced rugby and should be too much for the Clan.

Bulls by 20

Bulls: 15 Jürgen Visser, 14 Akona Ndungane, 13 JJ Engelbrecht, 12 Jan Serfontein, 11 Lionel Mapoe, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies (captain), 7 Dewald Potgieter, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Frik Kirsten, 2 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 1 Morné Mellett.
Replacements: 16 Callie Visagie, 17 Werner Kruger, 18 Grant Hattingh, 19 Arno Botha, 20 Jano Vermaak, 21 Louis Fouché, 22 Bjorn Basson.

Cheetahs v Reds: SAST 19h10 – Free State Stadium, Bloemfontein

After the Cheetahs performance last week the question is, have they topped out? Maybe not but against the Reds and the halfback pairing of Genia and Cooper I’m afraid that the Cheetahs just don’t half the flyhalf to win them the game. However, if they can get their defence back on track they should keep the score close and with the Reds having drawn twice already another draw is not impossible.

Reds by 6

Cheetahs: 15 Hennie Daniller, 14 Willie le Roux, 13 Johann Sadie, 12 Robert Ebersohn, 11 Raymond Rhule, 10 Elgar Watts, 9 Piet van Zyl, 8 Philip van der Walt, 7 Pieter Labuschagne, 6 Heinrich Brüssow, 5 Francois Uys, 4 Lodewyk de Jager, 3 Lourens Adriaanse, 2 Adriaan Strauss (captain), 1 Coenie Oosthuizen.
Replacements: 16 Ryno Barnes, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Rynhardt Landman, 19 Johannes Prinsloo, 20 Sarel Pretorius, 21 Riaan Smit, 22 Ryno Benjamin.

Top 5 players per position (UDT Fantasy League)

Outside backs: Frank Halai, Henry Speight, Raymond Ruhle, Charles Piutau, Jesse Mogg
Centres: Israel Folau, Joseph Tomane, Robert Ebersohn, Ben Tapuai, Johann Sadie,
Flyhalf (kickers): Christian Lealiifano, Quade Cooper, Morne Steyn, Beauden Barrett, Patrick Lambie
Scrumhalf: TJ Perenara, Piri Weepu, Will Genia, Jano Vermaak, Andy Ellis
Loose Forwards: Ben Mowen, Jack Schatz, Scott Higgenbotham, Liam Messam, Sam Cane
Locks: Brodie Retallick, Hugh Pyle, Andries Bekker, Rob Simmons, Francois Uys
Front Rows: Ged Robinson, Ben Tameifuna, Coenie Oosthuizen, Wyatt Crockett, James Hanson

Top Try Scorers

1. Frank Halai (Blues)    8
2. Henry Speight (Brumbies)    7
2. Israel Folau (Waratahs)    7
4. Tim Nanai-Williams (Chiefs)    6
5. Alfie Mafi (Force)    5
5. Cam Crawford (Waratahs)    5
5. Gareth Anscombe (Chiefs)    5
5. Jesse Mogg (Brumbies)    5
5. Julian Savea (Hurricanes)    5
5. Raymond Rhule (Cheetahs)    5
5. Rod Davies (Reds)    5
5. Scott Higginbotham (Rebels)    5
5. TJ Perenara (Hurricanes)    5
14. Bernard Foley (Waratahs)    4
14. Charles Piutau (Blues)    4
14. Ged Robinson (Rebels)    4
14. Gio Aplon (Stormers)    4
14. Lelia Masaga (Chiefs)    4
14. Robert Ebersohn (Cheetahs)    4
14. Willie le Roux (Cheetahs)    4

Vodacom Cup Finals:

Friday, May 17 2013
Pumas vs Golden Lions – Mbombela Stadium, Nelspruit

Lions by 12

Leeus vs. Pumas: Chryzander Botha; Deon Helberg, Deon van Rensburg, Alwyn Hollenbach, Anthony Volmink; Marnitz Boshoff, Michael Bondesio; Warren Whiteley ©, Jaco Kriel, Warwick Tecklenburg, Hugo Kloppers, Hendrik Roodt, Ruan Dreyer, Robbie Coetzee, Jacques van Rooyen. Reserwes: Francois du Toit, Van Zyl Botha, JJ Breet, Willie Britz, Ross Cronjé, Dylan des Fountain, Lionel Cronjé.

Jean de Villiers’s second try vs the Blues:

devillierstry1

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by Baylion

2013 Super Rugby Round 13 Review

May 13, 2013 in Uncategorized

It generally was a bad weekend for South Africa on the playing fields home and abroad with only the Kings managing coming away with a win but that’s not the worst of it, it’s the way that especially the Stormers and the Sharks lost that was so disappointing as these teams are custodians of a number of our Springboks.

And I’ve said it before, the Kiwi sides seem so intent on quick ball and running their opponents off their feet that they forget to contest up front and when their opposition starves them of possession they are not looking very impressive. The Chiefs nearly lost to the Force whose up front game has picked up over the last few weeks, the Clan lost to a Kings side that dominated them up front and at the breakdowns and the Sharks tried to play the Kiwi game, without the skills required, and was left trailing at half time.

Unfortunately I wasn’t able to watch most of the matches due to a stuttering livestream.

My Superbru:

This week: 3/6
Overall: 52/81
Percentage: 64.20%

Super Rugby:

Chiefs v Force:

Not watched. The Chiefs are looking less and less like champions as they struggle to put away teams that should be easy beats.

Reds v Sharks:

In an effort to emulate the Kiwis running game the Sharks only succeeded in copying their weakness in controlling the game up front and were left stranded while the Reds ran in four tries to lead 29-3 by half time. For the Reds a number of players put their hands up for a spot in the Wallaby team none more than Will Genia, Quade Cooper and Rod Davies. The fact that the Sharks came back in the second half after their forwards took some control, and the Reds took their feet of the juice, when Anton Bressler, Willem Alberts and Derick Minnie got on the park doesn’t make up for the pathetic display of the first half and while they fought themselves close elementary errors late in the game cost them even a bonus point. All is not well in the Banana Republic and it could get worse next week against the Force, who have knocked over the Reds and the Crusaders so far this year and have upped their forwards game.

Cheetahs v Hurricanes:

Unable to watch the game I followed bits and pieces on Rugby365′s text commentary and it was a tale of knock ons, slipped tackles and basic errors. Clearly the Cheetahs were still on their break but all is not lost and they should be back but it will be tough next week against the Reds.

Blues v Rebels:

Not watched.

Waratahs v Stormers:

So! The Stormers decided to shelve their plans of a more attacking game and reverted to their tried and trusted game of yesteryear. They were fortunate that the Waratahs play makers did seem to notice the wide open spaces behind their defensive line and exploit it with chip kicks and grubbers otherwise the result could have been a lot worse. Some Stormers fans will be happy that they now again have a flyhalf without a creative bone in his body and that their coaches have chickened out from playing a more attacking game. They might as well send Elton Jantjies home as they’re just not good enough or brave enough to make use of his skills and talents. In the two games where they gave him the responsibility and freedom to play his game they scored seven tries and won. Fortunately they can try and bore the Rebels to death next as the Rebels will be without Beale or JOC.

Kings v Highlanders:

I only saw about 20 minutes of the first half and in that time the Kings dominated possession and territory and starved the Highlanders’ running backs of opportunities while attacking with intent. A great game by the Kings against a team loaded with international talent and a smile wiper for many, including me, as a confident Kings side is the last thing the Lions would want for the knock-outs. With three wins and a draw the Kings have exceeded most people’s expectations this season, even if their wins were all against the bottom feeders, and their performance must ring alarm bells for the high bonus executives in the SARU Ivory Tower. How will they justify risking the Kings in knock-out games to their political masters when they have performed so much better than expected and have had a successful season, whatever happens from here on in? Maybe Jurie Roux will “earn” his big bonus for a change and come up with an equitable solution.

One thing is certain the Kings is building up a nice head of steam and with the Sharks and Stormers out of sorts those derby games won’t be the guaranteed easy beats that was initially expected and the Lions have a lot of homework to do before the knock outs.

Vodacom Cup Semi Finals:

Pumas vs EP Kings:

The Pumas easily beat an EP Kings side that was weakened by the withdrawal of ineligible players as well as players to the Southern Kings to qualify for their first Vodacom Cup final.

Golden Lions vs WP:

A much more experienced Lions side ran in six tries to two against a young WP team to set up a final against the Pumas at Mbombela Stadium and a chance of their fifth Vodacom Cup.

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by Baylion

2013 Super Rugby Round 13 Preview

May 8, 2013 in Uncategorized

We’re into the final stretch before the break for the winter tours and nothing is settled yet. The Bulls, Crusaders and Waratahs made strong statements last weekend while the log leaders spluttered. This weekend the Cheetahs will want to continue their record breaking season while the Kings and the Highlanders meet for a Wooden Spoon clash.

My Superbru:

Last week: 5/7
Overall: 49/75
Percentage: 65.33%

Super Rugby:

Fri, 10 May
Chiefs v Force: SAST 09h35 – ECOlight Stadium, Pukekohe

The Force has been an anomaly, they beat the Reds and the Crusaders but lost to the Kings and the Rebels – go figure. The Force forward pack have developed into contenders but they are without any real spark at the back, especially now that they have fired their primary strike weapon, Alfie Mafi. The Chiefs have been stuttering along, being brilliant and atrocious at times, sometimes even in the same movement, but their attack should be too much for the Force but it can come unstuck if they don’t contend with the Force’s forwards.

CHIEFS to beat Force by 12

Chiefs – 15 Robbie Robinson, 14 Lelia Masaga, 13 Save Tokula, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Patrick Osborne, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Matt Vant-Leven, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke (c), 3 Ben Afeaki, 2 Hika Elliot, 1 Toby Smith.
Subs: 16 Mo Schwalger, 17 Ben Tameifuna, 18 Mike Fitzgerald, 19 Tanerau Latimer, 20 August Pulu, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Asaeli Tikoirotuma.

Force: 15 Jayden Hayward, 14 Patrick Dellit, 13 Ben Jacobs, 12 Kyle Godwin, 11 Nick Cummins, 10 Sias Ebersohn, 9 Brett Sheehan, 8  Ben McCalman, 7 Chris Alcock, 6 Matt Hodgson (captain), 5 Sam Wykes, 4 Toby Lynn, 3 Kieran Longbottom, 2 Heath Tessmann, 1 Pek Cowan.
Replacements: 6 James Hilterbrand, 17 Tetera Faulkner, 18 Rory Walton, 19 Richard Brown, 20 Alby Mathewson, 21 Junior Rasolea, 22 Sam Norton-Knight.

Reds v Sharks: SAST 11h40 – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

What can I say about the Sharks that hasn’t already been said. More injuries with Frans Steyn, Tera Mthembu and Craig Burden sidelined but at least they got Willem Alberts back this week to give them some go-forward ball. But what will they do with it? The Reds may have been fought to a draw by the Force but I think they will know how to combat Willem Alberts’s one dimensional game and only the Sharks’ defence will keep them in the game but it won’t be enough.

REDS to beat Sharks by 9

Reds: Jono Lance, Rod Davies, Chris Feauai-Sautia, Anthony Faingaa, Digby Ioane, Quade Cooper, Will Genia (capt); Jake Schatz, Liam Gill, Ed Quirk, Ed ODonoghue, Rob Simmons, James Slipper, Saia Faingaa, Greg Holmes.
Res: James Hanson, Albert Anae, Adam Wallace-Harrison, Beau Robinson, Jarrad Butler, Ben Lucas, Ben Tapuai.

Sharks: 15. Riaan Viljoen, 14. Piet Lindeque, 13. JP Pietersen, 12. Meyer Bosman, 11. Lwazi Mvovo, 10. Patrick Lambie, 9. Charl McLeod, 8. Keegan Daniel (Capt), 7. Jean Deysel, 6. Marcell Coetzee, 5. Franco van der Merwe, 3. Wiehahn Herbst, 4. Pieter-Steph du Toit, 2. Kyle Cooper,  1. JC Janse van Rensburg
Replacements: 16. Monde Hadebe, 17. Jannie du Plessis, 18. Anton Bresler, 19. Derick Minnie, 20. Willem Alberts, 21. Tian Meyer, 22. Odwa Ndungane

Cheetahs v Hurricanes: SAST 19h10 – Free State Stadium, Bloemfontein

The Cheetahs took a well earned break while the Hurricanes are trying to recover from the shock of the Loftus defeat, more the size and manner of it than the fact. With key playmaker Conrad Smith out of action the Canes will have a tough time against the Cheetahs, especially as they don’t have the forwards to contest up front and Ben Franks won’t get away with all his illegal play that have been overlooked so far.

CHEETAHS to beat Hurricanes by 6

Cheetahs15 Hennie Daniller, 14 Willie le Roux, 13 Johann Sadie, 12 Robert Ebersohn, 11 Raymond Rhule, 10 Burton Francis, 9 Piet van Zyl, 8 Phillip van der Walt, 7 Frans Viljoen, 6 Heinrich Brüssow, 5 Francois Uys, 4 Lodewyk de Jager, 3 Lourens Adriaanse, 2 Adriaan Strauss (c), 1 Coenie Oosthuizen.
Subs: 16 Ryno Barnes, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Rynhard Landman, 19 Boom Prinsloo, 20 Sarel Pretorius, 21 Elgar Watts, 22 Ryno Benjamin.

Hurricanes: 15 Andre Taylor / James Marshall, 14 Alapati Leiua, 13 Reynold Lee-Lo, 12 Tim Bateman, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Victor Vito (c), 7 Jack Lam / Karl Lowe, 6 Faifili Levave, 5 Jason Eaton, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Ben May, 1 Ben Franks, 2 Ash Dixon
Replacements: 16 Reggie Goodes 17 Jeffery Toomaga-Allen 18 James Broadhurst 19 Brad Shields 20 Chris Smylie 21 Tusi Pisi 22 James Marshall / Karl Lowe

Sat, 11 May
Blues v Rebels: SAST 09h35 – Eden Park, Auckland

The Blues may not have been at their best against the Stormers and they may have been a bit lucky but nothing the Rebels can throw at them will result in a defeat.

BLUES to beat Rebels by 18

Blues: 15 Charles Piutau, 14 Frank Halai, 13 Rene Ranger, 12 Francis Saili, 11 George Moala, 10 Chris Noakes, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Peter Saili, 7 Brendon O’Connor, 6 Steven Luatua, 5 Ali Williams (c), 4 Anthony Boric, 3 Angus Ta’avao, 2 Quentin MacDonald, 1 Tim Perry. Reserves: 16 Gafatasi Su’a, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Ronald Raaymakers, 19 Luke Braid, 20 Jamison Gibson-Park, 21 Baden Kerr, 22 Lolan Visinia.

Rebels: 15. Jason Woodward, 14. Tom English, 13. Mitch Inman, 12. Lachie Mitchell, 11. Cooper Vuna, 10. James O’Connor, 9. Nick Phipps, 8. Scott Higginbotham (c), 7. Scott Fuglistaller, 6. Jarrod Saffy, 5. Cadeyrn Neville, 4. Hugh Pyle, 3. Laurie Weeks, 2. Shota Horie, 1. Nic Henderson
Replacements: 16. Ged Robinson, 17. Paul Alo-Emile, 18. Luke Jones, 19. Gareth Delve, 20. Nic Stirzaker, 21. Angus Roberts, 22. Bryce Hegarty

Waratahs v Stormers: SAST 11h40 – Allianz Stadium, Sydney

Probably the toughest match to call. The Waratahs have their mojo back and have started to gel over the last three weeks or so while the Stormers will feel they were a bit unlucky and/or self destructive last weekend against the Blues. I’m sure Jean de Villiers will take ALL shots at goal this week and the question is whether the Tahs have enough mojo back or not to beat the Stormers – they’re not the Kings you know. The Stormers defence will keep them in the game, they have enough up front to get good possession and with JdV in good form at the back they can take this one.

STORMERS to beat Waratahs by 5

Waratahs: 15. Israel Folau, 14. Cam Crawford, 13. Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12. Rob Horne, 11. Peter Betham, 10. Bernard Foley, 9. Brendan McKibbin,  8. Wycliff Palu, 7. Michael Hooper, 6. Dave Dennis, 5. Kane Douglas, 4. Sitaleki Timani, 3. Sekope Kepu, 2. Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1. Benn Robinson
Replacements: 16. John Ulugia, 17. Paddy Ryan, 18. Will Skelton, 19. Mitchell Chapman, 20. Pat McCutcheon, 21. Matt Lucas, 22. Berrick Barnes, 23. Drew Mitchell

Stormers15 Joe Pietersen, 14 Gio Aplon, 13 Juan de Jongh, 12 Jean de Villiers (c), 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Gary van Aswegen, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Rynhardt Elstadt, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Deon Fourie, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Subs: 16 Scarra Ntubeni, 17 Pat Cilliers, 18 Don Armand, 19 Nizaam Carr, 20 Louis Schreuder, 21 Elton Jantjies, 22 Gerhard van den Heever.

Kings v Highlanders: SAST 17h05 – Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, Port Elizabeth

The Battle of the Wooden Spoon. Can the Kings shake the memories of the thumping they took against the Tahs and have the Clan really started to gel? Well, if the Kings thought the Tahs ran at them they are in for a surprise as that is all the Highlanders seem to do and they have some class backs in Ben Smith, Hosea Gear, Aaron Smith, Tamati Ellison and Jason Emery playing behind All Black like Brad Thorn, Toney Woodcock and Andrew Hore and I don’t think the Kings’ so-called defence will be good enough to contain them. The only ray of light for the Kings is that the Clan is so intent on running the ball that their defence leaves enough gaps for counter attacks and they will feel the loss of Sergeal Petersen in this regard.

HIGHLANDERS to beat Southern Kings by 25

Kings: 15 George Whitehead, 14 Marcello Sampson, 13 Ronnie Cooke, 12 Andries Strauss, 11 Siyanda Grey, 10 Demetri Catrakilis, 9 Shaun Venter, 8 Cornell du Preez, 7 Luke Watson (captain), 6 Wimpie van der Walt, 5 David Bulbring, 4 Steven Sykes, 3 AN Other, 2 Bandise Maku,1 Schalk Ferreira.
Replacements: 16 Virgile Lacombe, 17 AN Other, 18 Daniel Adongo, 19 Devin Oosthuizen, 20 Nicolas Vergallo, 21 Shane Gates, 22 SP Marais.

Highlanders: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Tino Nemani, 13 Tamati Ellison, 12 Shaun Treeby, 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Colin Slade, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 TJ Ioane, 7 John Hardy, 6 Jarrad Hoeata, 5 Josh Bekhuis, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Chris King, 2 Andrew Hore (captain), 1 Tony Woodcock.
Reserves: 16 Liam Coltman, 17 Ma’afu Fia, 18 Mose Tuiali’i, 19 Joe Wheeler, 20 Fumiaki Tanaka, 21 Hayden Parker, 22 Jason Emery.

 

Top 5 players per position (UDT Fantasy League)

Outside backs: Tim Nanai-Williams, Henry Speight, Jesse Mogg, Raymond Ruhle, Willie le Roux,
Centres: Israel Folau, Joseph Tomane, Robert Ebersohn, Ben Tapuai, Johann Sadie,
Flyhalf (kickers): Gareth Anscombe, Christian Lealiifano, Morne Steyn, Quade Cooper, Patrick Lambie
Scrumhalf: Piri Weepu, TJ Perenara, Will Genia, Jano VErmaak, Andy Ellis
Loose Forwards: Ben Mowen, Jack Schatz, Liam Messam, George Whitelock, Lappies Labuschagne
Locks: Hugh Pyle, Brodie Retallick, Andries Bekker, Rob Simmons, Peter Kimlin
Front Rows: Ged Robinson, Ben Tameifuna, Wyatt Crockett, Adriaan Strauss, James Hanson

Top Try Scorers

1. Henry Speight (Brumbies)    7
2. Israel Folau (Waratahs)    6
2. Tim Nanai-Williams (Chiefs)    6
4. Alfie Mafi (Force)    5
4. Frank Halai (Blues)    5
4. Gareth Anscombe (Chiefs)    5
4. Jesse Mogg (Brumbies)    5
4. Raymond Rhule (Cheetahs)    5
9. Bernard Foley (Waratahs)    4
9. Cam Crawford (Waratahs)    4
9. Charles Piutau (Blues)    4
9. Gio Aplon (Stormers)    4
9. Hugh Pyle (Rebels)    4
9. Joseph Tomane (Brumbies)    4
9. Julian Savea (Hurricanes)    4
9. Kade Poki (Highlanders)    4
9. Scott Higginbotham (Rebels)    4
9. Sergeal Petersen (Kings)    4
9. TJ Perenara (Hurricanes)    4
9. Willie le Roux (Cheetahs)    4

Vodacom Cup Semi Finals:

Saturday, May 11 2013
Pumas vs EP Kings – Mbombela Stadium, Nelspruit

PUMAS to beat Eastern Province Kings by 9

Golden Lions vs WP – Ellis Park, Johannesburg

LIONS to beat Western Province by 20

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by Baylion

The challenge of the Lions Challenge

May 6, 2013 in Uncategorized

EmbarrassedThe inaptly named Lions Challenge has become a real challenge for the Golden Lions as the time of reckoning draws near. With less than three months to the Wooden Spoon Knock Outs the Lions Challenge is unraveling leaving the Lions with the task of arranging alternative matches on short notice.

Since French club Agen cancelled their trip down south due to budgetary reasons the French Barbarians have also cancelled their game and it is rumoured that the games against Montpellier and Grenoble are also endangered leaving the Lions with matches against Samoa, in South Africa for the winter tests, the Sharks and the Stormers.

The French Barbarians apparently cancelled as they had hoped for three matches in South Africa but only the Lions match could be arranged while Grenoble claims “a lack of guarantee from the province of Golden Lions for the organization”, according to the French rugby web site Rugby Rama.

The GLRU, however, announced this week that the games against Montpellier and Grenoble are still on the cards but will be confirmed later. The game against Montpellier will be depend on whether they make the Top 14 play-offs. The French Barbarians match will be replaced by an SA Barbarians side that will feature some of South Africa’s overseas based players.

This leaves the Lions with only four certain matches in June and none in July before the knock outs on 27 July and 3 August.

1-Jun-13 vs Samoa @ Ellis Park
8-Jun-13 vs SA Barbarians @ Ellis Park
15-Jun-13 vs Stormers @ Ellis Park
21-Jun-13 vs Sharks @ Ellis Park

To add to the problems of arranging alternative matches for July is the fact that the Currie Cup First Division competition starts on 28 June already with the result that none of the “B” division unions can play the Lions.

The junior Currie Cup schedules haven’t been released yet but given that the U/19 and U/21 competitions started mid-July last year, games against the Vodacom Cup teams of the Blue Bulls, the Sharks, Griquas and the Free State might not be viable as these teams normally contain a number of their juniors with the senior players in Super Rugby.

Meanwhile Samoa has announced their touring squad, which is made up of mainly overseas based players and is probably the strongest squad they have assembled outside of the World Cups. The game against the Lions start off their tour and will probably be used by them to try and gel their team before their first test against Scotland.

Is it all falling apart as some in the media suggest?

I don’t think so. The purpose of the Lions Challenge was always to prepare players and to keep players match fit rather than to necessarily give them Super Rugby level competition, impossible as all the Super Rugby teams are playing … wait for it! … Super Rugby and so far the players’ preparation and match fitness seem to be on track. With at least three games is July the only problem period in in July when, if the French teams pull out, the Lions will have no matches and are in danger of going into the play offs rusty, especially if one consider that their loan players only return two weeks before the play offs.

This is where the Lions need to look for at least two certain matches, one after the loan players have returned. If they can do that the Lions’ Wooden Spoon Knockouts Preparation Programme will achieve what was set out to achieve, albeit not quite in the same way as originally scheduled.

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by Baylion

2013 Super Rugby Round 12 Review

May 5, 2013 in Uncategorized

Ominous signs for the log leaders with the Bulls, Waratahs and Crusaders giving dominant and polished performances while the leaders are stuttering along. The Stormers and Sharks managed to shoot themselves in their collective feet while the Force, once again, surprised everyone by drawing with the Reds and the “good” Crusaders side turned up in Canberra.

My Superbru:

This week: 5/7
Overall: 49/75
Percentage: 65.33%

Blues v Stormers – 18-17

The Stormers have only themselves to blame for this loss. Not making use of their first half dominance when they failed to score a number of times while giving Chris Noakes the opportunity to slot penalty after penalty. Not only have they borrowed a number of Lions players they have also adopted the Lions ill-fated strategy of last year of not taking the points on offer but try to go for tries instead, with the same success. Joe Pietersen had a horror first half with the boot missing penalty line kicks as well as a penalty and Aplon managed to screw up a certain try by not passing to his left 15m from the tryline. Too many mistakes saw them fighting off the back foot in the second half but a good fight back late in the game and two good tries by Jean de Villiers gave them hope but they were unable to gain enough ground after the hooter to effect a win through a penalty or drop goal. Close but no cigar – OK, give them a little one as they did get a losing bonus point. Of note is that Elton Jantjies returned from his injury break with an even worse haircut than before.

Rebels v Chiefs – 33-39

The first half was Gareth Anscombe vs the Rebels when he scored three tries, converted two and slotted two penalties. Only watched bits and pieces of the match but letting in five second half tries cannot make the Chiefs’ coach very happy. I must say though, how the TMO didn’t rule the Rebels first try a forward pass I’ll never know.

Highlanders v Sharks – 25-22

Desperate performances by two desperate sides saw a disjointed first half with the Sharks (and Derick Minnie) fortunate that Colin Slade had left his kicking boots in the change room. The Clan came out to play in the second half and found the Sharks missing for 20 minutes while passes stuck and and they made fewer unforced errors. Once the Sharks decided to get back on the field they fought back well to get within reach but desperate, and at times illegal, defence by the Clan kept them out as the Sharks refused to settle for a draw. The game saw two of the best tries in the competition, one from Slade and Bosman’s second, but as someone commented on Sharksworld, a better team would have put either of these sides to the sword.

Force v Reds – 11-11

Just when you think that sanity has returned the Force goes and draw with the Reds. They cannot beat cr@p teams but they beat the Reds and the Crusaders this year and now this.

Kings v Waratahs – 10-72

The Kings were shown up for the pretenders they are by the first team this season that was prepared to play rugby for 80 minutes. Outplayed up front and the back the Kings had no answer to a resurgent Waratahs side that has found its mojo the last few weeks and that hasn’t received the message that they must allow the Kings to salvage “brave” losses. The only good thing for the Kings supporters wasn’t the Southern Kings but the EP Kings, they managed to beat a Blue Bulls side filled with the best young players money can buy to go through to the Vodacom Cup semi final.

Bulls v Hurricanes – 48-14

The Hurricanes combined moments of sheer brilliance with moments of utter incompetence – the brilliance lead to two Perenara tries, the incompetence to two Bulls intercept tries. But the Bulls sent a message – after an indifferent start to the season they now play with control and they are intent on being in the play-offs. Apart from the few moments of brilliance the Hurricanes were never in the game as the Bulls dominated up front and played with freedom quality possession allows while Morne Steyn, under no pressure, controlled the game with a balanced kicking and passing game. Ominous signs – the Bulls are back!

Brumbies v Crusaders – 23-30

It was the good Crusaders side that rocked up to play. They outplayed the Brumbies up front and at the breakdowns and it was only in the last few minutes that the Brumbies showed some life and started to play with intensity. Dan “The Man” Carter made it all look so easy as he controlled the flow of the Saders game while giving a faultless goal kicking performance to boot. The Brumbies, with a bye on hand, will still lead the Aussie conference after the coming weekend but they will know that they need to up their game in coming weeks.

Vodacom Cup Quarter Finals:

Sharks XV 25-42 Golden Lions

Pumas 44-37 Pampas

WP 21-13 Griquas

Blue Bulls 31-34 EP Kings

The Golden Lions will meet WP at Ellis Park and the Pumas will play the EP Kings in Nelspruit in the semi finals this coming weekend.

Next:

Fri, 10 May
Chiefs v Force: SAST 09h35 – ECOlight Stadium, Pukekohe
Reds v Sharks: SAST 11h40 – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Cheetahs v Hurricanes: SAST 19h10 – Free State Stadium, Bloemfontein
Sat, 11 May
Blues v Rebels: SAST 09h35 – Eden Park, Auckland
Waratahs v Stormers: SAST 11h40 – Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Kings v Highlanders: SAST 17h05 – Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, Port Elizabeth
Byes: Brumbies, Bulls, Crusaders

Saturday, May 11 2013
Pumas vs EP Kings – Mbombela Stadium, Nelspruit
Golden Lions vs WP – Ellis Park, Johannesburg