My Superbru:

Last week: 4/7
Overall: 56/88
Percentage: 63.64%

Super Rugby:

Fri, 24 May
Chiefs v Crusaders: SAST 09h35 – Waikato Stadium, Hamilton

This is a tough one to call with the Chiefs scraping wins each week and the Saders on the march, especially now that Kieran Read is back. The Chiefs have lost their way a bit in recent weeks trying to run everything and making too many mistakes but they have been winning. The Crusaders, on the other hand, has stepped it up and is the one Kiwi side that actually look to dominate up front and not to run everything. This up front dominance will work in the Crusaders’ favour this weekend.

CRUSADERS to beat Chiefs by 6

Chiefs: 15 Robbie Robinson, 14 Patrick Osborne, 13 Charlie Ngatai, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Matt Vant Leven, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke (captain), 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Hika Elliot, 1 Pauliasi Manu.
Replacements: 16 Mahonri Schwalger, 17 Toby Smith, 18 Michael Fitzgerald, 19 Sam Cane, 20 Augustine Pulu, 21 Dan Waenga, 22 Lelia Masaga.

Crusaders: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Tom Marshall, 13 Ryan Crotty, 12 Tom Taylor, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Kieran Read (captain), 7 Matt Todd, 6 George Whitelock, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Replacements: 16 Ben Funnell/Laurence Corlett, 17 Joe Moody, 18 Dominic Bird, 19 Luke Whitelock, 20 Willi Heinz, 21 Robbie Fruean, 22 Telusa Veianu.

Rebels v Waratahs: SAST 11h40 – AAMI Park, Melbourne

Yes, the Rebels beat the Stormers last week, not really due to their own brilliance but rather due to the Stormers incompetence and I don’t see them beating a Waratahs team that’s on the rise.

WARATAHS to beat Rebels by 15

Rebels: 15 Jason Woodward, 14 Tom English, 13 Mitch Inman, 12 Rory Sidey, 11 Lachlan Mitchell, 10 Bryce Hegarty, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Scott Higginbotham (captain), 7 Scott Fuglistaller, 6 Jarrod Saffy, 5 Luke Jones, 4 Hugh Pyle, 3 Laurie Weeks, 2 Ged Robinson, 1 Nic Henderson.
Replacements: 16 Shota Horie, 17 Paul Alo-Emile, 18 Cadeyrn Neville, 19 Gareth Delve, 20 Nic Stirzaker, 21 James Hilgendorf, 22 Kimami Sitauti.

Waratahs: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Peter Betham, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Matt Lucas, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dave Dennis (captain), 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Sitaleki Timani, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 John Ulugia, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Luke Holmes, 17 Paddy Ryan, 18 Will Skelton, 19 Mitchell Chapman, 20 Brendan McKibbin, 21 Rob Horne, 22 Tom Kingston.

Sat, 25 May
Blues v Brumbies: SAST 09h35 – Eden Park, Auckland

Another tough call as two teams that have been inconsistent take each other on, the Blues to stay in the race, the Brumbies to maintain a grip on the top Aussie spot. The Brumbies started the season in good nick but have only won three of their last eight games. The Blues haven’t been able to win more than two matches in row but fortunately for them they lost last weekend so another win is on the cards.

BLUES to beat Brumbies by 6

BLUES: Charles Piutau, Frank Halai, Rene Ranger, Francis Saili, George Moala, Chris Noakes, Piri Weepu; Peter Saili, Luke Braid, Brendon O’Connor, Ali Williams (c), Culum Retallick, Angus Ta’avao/ Sam Prattley, Keven Mealamu, Tim Perry.
Reserves: James Parsons, Sam Prattley/Ofa Tu’ungafasi, Anthony Boric, Kane Barrett, Jamison Gibson-Park, Baden Kerr, Jackson Willison.

Brumbies – 15 Jesse Mogg, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Christian Lealiifano, 11 Joseph Tomane, 10 Matt Toomua, 9 Nic White, 8 Ben Mowen, 7 Colby Faingaa, 6 Peter Kimlin, 5 Sam Carter, 4 Scott Fardy, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Scott Sio.
Subs: 16 Siliva Siliva, 17 Ruan Smith, 18 Jordan Smiler, 19 Fotu Auelua, 20 Ian Prior, 21 Robbie Coleman, 22 Clyde Rathbone.

Force v Highlanders: SAST 11h40 – NIB Stadium, Perth

The battle for the Wooden Spoon. The Force have the forwards to dominate up front and to cut the Highlanders back off from good running ball and if their defence holds they should take this one.

FORCE to beat Highlanders by 5

Kings v Cheetahs: SAST 15h00 – Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, Port Elizabeth

After a good win against the Highlanders last week the Kings are feeling cocky, if one read the comments by Cheeky Watson in the media, but the Cheetahs should be in a good space after not the best but still a good win over the Reds and with their defence back on track they shouldn’t have too many problems beating the Kings. A five pointer is another matter as the Cheetahs attack hasn’t been all that great this season but they will be happy with a win.

CHEETAHS to beat Southern Kings by 15

Kings: 15 SP Marais, 14 Siyanda Grey, 13 Ronnie Cooke, 12 Andries Strauss, 11 Marcello Sampson, 10 Demetri Catrakilis, 9 Shaun Venter, 8 Cornell du Preez, 7 Luke Watson (captain), 6 Wimpie van der Walt, 5 David Bulbring, 4 Steve Sykes, 3 Kevin Buys, 2 Bandise Maku, 1 Schalk Ferreira.
Replacements: 16 Virgile Lacombe, 17 Grant Kemp, 18 Rynier Bernado, 19 Jacques Engelbrecht, 20 Nicolas Vergallo, 21 Shane Gates, 22 George Whitehead.

Cheetahs – 15 Hennie Daniller, 14 Ryno Benjamin, 13 Johann Sadie, 12 Robert Ebersohn, 11 Willie le Roux, 10 Elgar Watts, 9 Piet van Zyl, 8 Philip van der Walt, 7 Lappies Labuschagne, 6 Heinrich Brüssow, 5 Francois Uys, 4 Lodewyk de Jager, 3 Lourens Adriaanse, 2 Adriaan Strauss (c), 1 Coenie Oosthuizen.
Subs: 16 Ryno Barnes, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Rynhardt Landman, 19 Boom Prinsloo, 20 Sarel Pretorius, 21 Riaan Smit, 22 Ryno Benjamin.

Stormers v Reds: SAST 17h05 – DHL Newlands Stadium, Cape Town

What can one say? I just don’t see the Stormers pulling this one off, especially not with the latest spate of injuries that sees them without Fourie, Bekker, de Jongh, Malherbe and Cilliers. A combination of injuries and struggling to implement a new game plan has derailed the Stormers’ campaign this year and they are only playing for pizzas at the moment.

REDS to beat Stormers by 9

Stormers – 15 Joe Pietersen, 14 Gio Aplon, 13 Jean de Villiers (c), 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Louis Schreuder, 8 Nizaam Carr, 7 Don Armand, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Eben Etzebeth, 4 Gerbrand Grobler, 3 Brok Harris, 2 Tiaan Liebenberg, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Subs: 16 Martin Bezuidenhout, 17 Chris Heiberg, 18 Marius Coetzer, 19 Rohan Kitshoff, 20 Dewaldt Duvenage, 21 Gary van Aswegen, 22 Gerhard van den Heever.

Sharks v Bulls: SAST 19h10 – Mr Price Kings Park, Durban

The Bulls will look to cement their top of the conference position and a loss by the Chiefs could see them top of the log. The Sharks will have some old hands back in the pack and the up front battle could be epic but at the back the Sharks just don’t have the firepower to derail the Bulls at this stage.

BULLS to beat Sharks by 12

Sharks – 15 Riaan Viljoen, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 Piet Lindeque, 12 Meyer Bosman, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Pat Lambie, 9 Charl McLeod, 8 Keegan Daniel (c), 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Franco van der Merwe, 4 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Kyle Cooper, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Monde Hadebe, 17 Wiehahn Herbst, 18 Jandre Marais, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Tera Mtembu, 21 Tian Meyer, 22 Sean Robinson.

Bulls – 15 Jürgen Visser, 14 Akona Ndungane, 13 JJ Engelbrecht, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bjorn Basson, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies (c), 7 Dewald Potgieter, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Juandré Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 1 Dean Greyling.
Subs: 16 Willie Wepener, 17 Frik Kirsten, 18 Grant Hattingh, 19 Arno Botha, 20 Jano Vermaak, 21 Louis Fouché/Jan Serfontein, 22 Lionel Mapoe.

Top 5 players per position (UDT Fantasy League)

Outside backs: Frank Halai, Jesse Mogg, Henry Speight, Raymond Ruhle, Charles Piutau
Centres: Israel Folau, Robert Ebersohn, Joseph Tomane, Johann Sadie, Ben Tapuai
Flyhalf (kickers): Morne Steyn, Quade Cooper, Christian Lealiifano, BEauden Barrett, Patrick Lambie
Scrumhalf: TJ Perenara, Nick White, Piri Weepu, Will Genia, Piet va Zyl
Loose Forwards: Ben Mowen, Scott Higgenbotham, Jack Schatz, Michael Hooper, Liam Messam, George Whitelock
Locks: Hugh Pyle, Brodie Retallick, Andries Bekker, Rob Simmons, Francois Uys
Front Rows: Ged Robinson, Ben Tameifuna, Coenie Oosthuizen, Wyatt Crockett, Adriaan Strauss

Top Try Scorers

1. Frank Halai (Blues)    8
2. Henry Speight (Brumbies)    7
2. Israel Folau (Waratahs)    7
4. Scott Higginbotham (Rebels)    6
4. Tim Nanai-Williams (Chiefs)    6
6. Alfie Mafi (Force)    5
6. Cam Crawford (Waratahs)    5
6. Gareth Anscombe (Chiefs)    5
6. Hugh Pyle (Rebels)    5
6. Jesse Mogg (Brumbies)    5
6. Julian Savea (Hurricanes)    5
6. Raymond Rhule (Cheetahs)    5
6. Rod Davies (Reds)    5
6. TJ Perenara (Hurricanes)    5
15. Bernard Foley (Waratahs)    4
15. Ged Robinson (Rebels)    4
15. Hosea Gear (Highlanders)    4
15. Kade Poki (Highlanders)    4
15. Peter Betham (Waratahs)    4
15. Willie le Roux (Cheetahs)    4

Most Try Assists
1. Bernard Foley (Waratahs)    11
2. Aaron Cruden (Chiefs)    7
3. Beauden Barrett (Hurricanes)    5
3. James O’Connor (Rebels)    5
3. Quade Cooper (Reds)    5
3. Rene Ranger (Blues)    5
3. Will Genia (Reds)    5
8. Christian Lealiifano (Brumbies)    4
8. Patrick Lambie (Sharks)    4
10. Elton Jantjies (Stormers)    3
10. Francis Saili (Blues)    3
10. Gareth Anscombe (Chiefs)    3
10. Israel Folau (Waratahs)    3
10. Matt Toomua (Brumbies)    3
10. Morne Steyn (Bulls)    3
10. Nic White (Brumbies)    3
10. Nick Phipps (Rebels)    3
10. Winston Stanley (Force)    3
19. Aaron Smith (Highlanders)    2
19. Phillip van der Walt (Cheetahs)    2

Most Linebreak Assists
1. Aaron Cruden (Chiefs)    13
2. Bernard Foley (Waratahs)    11
3. Israel Folau (Waratahs)    7
3. Quade Cooper (Reds)    7
5. Elton Jantjies (Stormers)    5
5. James O’Connor (Rebels)    5
5. Rene Ranger (Blues)    5
5. Will Genia (Reds)    5
9. Ben Smith (Highlanders)    4
9. Francis Saili (Blues)    4
9. Ma’a Nonu (Highlanders)    4
9. Matt Toomua (Brumbies)    4
9. Nic White (Brumbies)    4
9. Nick Phipps (Rebels)    4
15. Christian Lealiifano (Brumbies)    3
15. Daniel Carter (Crusaders)    3
15. Gareth Anscombe (Chiefs)    3
15. Jackson Willison (Blues)    3
15. Liam Messam (Chiefs)    3
15. Ryan Crotty (Crusaders)    3

The Stormers drafted the Pumas utility forward, Marius Coetzer, who played Super Rugby for the Lions in 2012, as cover at lock and flank.

After returning from their tour downunder the Stormers announced a number of new injuries to add to their woes.

The full DHL Stormers injury update is as follows:

New injuries (from the Rebels match):

- Hooker/flank Deon Fourie (fractured ribs – two-three weeks)
- Hooker Scarra Ntubeni (hamstring tear, grade two – two-three weeks)
- Prop Pat Cilliers (ankle, grade two ligament tear – minimum six weeks)
- Prop Frans Malherbe (ankle, syndesmosis tear – will be operated on tomorrow, not less than ten weeks – could be out long-term)
- Lock Andries Bekker (back, grade one disc tear – six-eight weeks)
- Centre Juan de Jongh (fracture in his ring finger – high up in the joint – minimum three weeks)

Back from injury this week:

- Hooker Tiaan Liebenberg (elbow)

Already out/long-term injuries:

- Lock De Kock Steenkamp (chest – needs another week or two)
- Lock Ruan Botha (ankle – fit for the Currie Cup)
- Flank Michael Rhodes (ankle, syndesmosis – should be back by the last week or two of league action)
- Flank Rynhardt Elstadt (knee – should be back by the last week or two of league action)
- No.8 Duane Vermeulen (knee – should be back by the last week or two of league action)
- Flyhalf Peter Grant (ankle, syndesmosis – definitely not back before the June Test break)
- Fullback Jaco Taute (knee – out for the rest of the season)

Long-term injuries – players that have not played yet in 2013:
- Prop Deon Carstens (retirement – neck)
- Flank Schalk Burger (calf, illness)

It is not that they don’t miss tackles or don’t make many ineffective tackles but rather that they cover the attack line of the opposition well, normally with more than one defender making the tackle. We’ve all seen them standing across the field like a Hadrian Wall on defence, leaving no gaps for the attackers to exploit.

FYI I pulled the tackle stats from Rugby Stats on their team and individual stats. There are two stats that look at the team and player’s effectiveness, missed tackles and ineffective tackles. Missed tackles are obvious, ineffective tackles are when the tackled player still completes a pass, an offload or scores a try even though he has been tackled.

All these stats are fairly meaningless, except when you are in a pub argument, as the stats that really matter in the end are the team’s log points and position.

Note: These are raw stats and do not take into account which teams were played, which players were tackled (obviously a back tackling a lock has less chance of success than a lock tackling a lock), etc.

Team Stats:

Statistically the Stormers is the most effective team when it comes to tackles with the lowest combined stat for missed and ineffective tackles but are worse than the Sharks and the Kings for missed tackles only.

Individual Stats:

I have left out some players because of limited game time, player like Eben Etzebeth, Jaco Taute, Scarra Ntubeni, etc.

Missed Tackles:
The missed tackle stat is the obvious one, a player slips off a tackle, gets run over, gets bumped, whatever and either the opponent runs on or someone else has to tackle him.

With 37.5% missed tackles Gerhard van den Heever is the worst tackler in the Stormers side and Rynhardt Elstadt (10.17%) the best while in the backline, excluding scrumhalves, Jean de Villiers (14.41%) misses the least tackles. It is interesting to see that the Stormers backline players are generally poor tacklers with only JdV and Bryan Habana under 20%.

Missed and Ineffective Tackles Combined:

The missed and ineffective tackle stats rates a player on his effectiveness as a defender. Based on the combined missed and ineffective tackle stats Gio Aplon (38.1%) is the Stormers worst defender while Frans Malherbe (9.64%) is the best. It is with great pleasure that I can announce that, statistically, Elton Jantjies (20.83%) is the Stormers best backline defender, excluding the scrumhalves.

There you have it. Use it, don’t use it.

Also read: The Stormers will never be Super Rugby champions

In the SA conference the Bulls have established themselves at the top of the conference with the Cheetahs vying for a play-off spot while the Stormers are committing ritual Harakiri.

In the Kiwi conference the Chiefs are still tops but the Crusaders are making a run for it while the the Clan is all but ensured of the Wooden Spoon title.

In the Aussie conference the Brumbies and the Reds are struggling to establish dominance while the Force fight valiant but losing fights at the bottom.

This weekend’s matches were marked (marred?) by some very questionable TMO decisions.

In other news the Golden Lions won their fifth Vodacom Cup by comprehensively beating their Lions franchise partners, the Pumas and have now won more senior rugby trophies the last three years than the Bulls, Cheetahs, Kings and Sharks combined (Just thought I’d get a dig in )

My Superbru:

This week: 4/7
Overall: 56/88
Percentage: 63.64%

Super Rugby:

Hurricanes v Chiefs: 12 – 17 (Did not watch)

The Chiefs are scraping through wins to stay at the top of the log, this time away from home. The sign of a champion?

Rebels v Stormers: 29 – 21

A questionable TMO decision gave the Rebels a penalty try near the end that cost the Stormers their losing bonus point but even more questionable decisions by captain Jean de Villiers not to take points on offer really cost them the match. That and losing Elton Jantjies to a head knock after 60 minutes, which resulted in the Stormers attack dying a very quick death.

Accept it Stormers fans, without Jantjies your team cannot score tries. In the three matches the Stormers allowed him to play his game they scored 13 of their 20 tries so get over the fact that he missed his kicks against the Bulls in the first match of the season!

Force v Sharks: 13 – 23

A purple patch by fullback Riaan Viljoen livend up a game that was little more than a “getjommel” between two desperate sides. At least the win allowed me to remove the “Save The Sharks” image from my blog

Crusaders v Blues: 23 – 3 (Did not watch)

The Crusaders are starting to threaten and are looking to be contenders again.

Waratahs v Brumbies: 28 – 22 (Did not watch)

Are the Tahs on their way up or the Brumbies on their way down? The Tahs have won four of their last five games while the Brumbies have won only three of their last eight games.

Bulls v Highlanders: 35 – 18

The Bulls have moved into the second spot on the log and is on track for a home semi final. Two questionable TMO decisions, one for the Bulls and one against, marred the match but the Bulls are ticking over like a well-oiled machine at the moment and the Clan were never really in the game and two late tries make them look better than they really were.

One disturbing thing, though, young Jan Serfontein is being developed into a battering ram #12 and the danger is that his skill and talent might just be coached out of him.

Cheetahs v Reds: 27 – 13

It happens that the better team on the day end up losing the match and that’s what happened here. Apart from two individual tries by scrumhalf Piet van Zyl the Cheetahs offered nothing on attack but was brilliant on defence. Numerous breaks and runs for the tryline by the Reds were foiled by desperate last moment tackles and one cannot fault the defensive effort of the Cheetahs but hopes that they find their attacking nous soon. Bubbling just under the top 6 on the log the Cheetahs, with a bye in hand, will look to improve that position in the final stretch of the competition to get into the play-offs, something that looked farfetched before the season started.

Vodacom Cup Finals:

Pumas vs Golden Lions: 28 – 42 (Did not watch)

A slow start by the Golden Lions saw them trail 10-0 with a man in the sinbin before they started to fight back and eventually win their fifth Vodacom Cup quite comfortably.

See also The value of the Vodacom Cup win for the Lions

A strong defence that allows a team to concede the minimum number of tries will, however, ensure that the team end in the top six and the play-offs. Only once since Super Rugby went professional in 1996 have the team that conceded the least number of tries ended outside the top six, in 2003 the Reds finished 10th.

While the “best” defensive team is virtually guaranteed of a play-off spot it’s chance of winning the competition is almost zero. Only twice since 1996 has the team that conceded the least number of tries won the competition, the Crusaders in 2008 and the Blues in 2003, even though they have often finished in the top two spots guaranteeing them home semi finals, a total of 8 times in fact and they’ve been finalists six times.

But if the Blues and the Crusader could do it the Stormers can too. Right? Wrong!

And the reason is that in 2003 and 2008, when the Blues and the Crusaders were the best defensive sides the were also the best attacking sides, scoring the most tries in those years.

In fact, nine times since 1996 the Super Rugby champion was also the team that scored the most tries in the regular season and the lowest try scoring ranking for a champion has been 5th.

The moral of the story is that Super Rugby champions are teams that are balanced on attack and defence but, first and foremost, they are attacking sides. The champions of the past have ranked mostly in the top 6 and as low as 9th on defence, but never lower than 5th on attack.

The Stormers, before the season started, professed that they will be looking to score more tries this year but that goal has gone of the rails. They started shakily against the Bulls, went defensive against the Sharks, then went all out against the Chiefs and the Brumbies scoring seven tries but conceding five and got such a fright that they reined in their attack until it dwindled to virtually nothing.

Now they are back to the being the best defensive side and in their comfort zone, a zone that will bring them no trophies unless they are prepared to break out and up their attacking prowess their supporters will have to be satisfied with a good but not good enough team.

Just as an example of the Stormers’ mindset: For the game against the Rebels Allister Coetzee selected Elton Jantjies to “spark the attack” but at the same time hobbled him, “He must make sure that there is a low error-rate”. This is telling him to be creative but not to take any risks. It seems Coetzee has learned nothing from his chat with the former All Black coach Graham Henry.

I wonder if the same will show up in the Currie Cup stats. For interest I looked at 2012, which WP won, and saw they had the second best defence, behind the Sharks, but they also had the second best attack, also behind the Sharks.

Insert:  The post was written before today’s match against the Rebels. Interesting to note that 13 of the Stormers 20 tries were scored when Elton Jantjies was given the freedom to play his game rather than forced into the Stormers conservative game plan. However, playing a more attacking game is no excuse for the poor defence that lead to Higgenbotham and Pyle’s tries.

Note: In this post I equate Defence with tries let in and Attack with tries scored.

Super Rugby since 1996

Tries let in

Tries scored:

It took the New Zealand Herald 13 weeks (and 9 losses) to move the Highlanders into the #15 spot but eventually they got there.

Enjoy the weekend!

Power Ranking #15 – Highlanders
Is it consolation or just plain wrong that after slumping to their ninth defeat – and this time to the lowly Kings – that the Highlanders should be rewarded with six players being named in the All Black wider training squad? Given that the Highlanders lead the competition in defenders beaten and are second in offloads, might it be fair to surmise, without putting too fine a point on it, that they are in fact spending 80 minutes each week running up their own arses?

Power Ranking #14 – Kings
The Kings responded to their hammering by the Waratahs with a win against the Highlanders. They were at times inspired and willing to take risks. “Tonight it came off and if it hadn’t the coach would have wrung my neck,” said captain Luke Watson about the two tries they scored from driving mauls after turning down the chance to kick for goal. Given the level of violence in South Africa, no one can be sure he was joking. Presumably he was – but then remember what the Boks were enforced to endure before the 2003 World Cup?

Bike Bar

Drinking problem

Power Ranking #13 – Force
The Force have rather unfortunately become the nearly men of Super Rugby. In recent weeks they have beaten the Crusaders, pushed the Hurricanes and Chiefs close and drawn with the Reds. They are a little frustrated – yet console themselves with soothing noises about having done their best. But according to the immortal line from Sean Connery in the not so classic movie The Rock: “Losers whine about doing their best. Winners go home with the Prom Queen.”

Power Ranking #10 – Sharks
The Sharks were poor in the first half last week, improved a bit in the second and were quite outstanding in the third – that is the post-match debrief. Kiwi coach John Plumtree was direct, committed and ruthless.“There’s some individuals there that just let themselves down big time,” he said. “This week we talked about how important our defence would be but there’s one or two players out there that are just out of form. I think we’re dead now. It’s just been a terrible season for us.”

Dalian ice cream truck

Great beer ad video

http://www.facebook.com/video/embed?video_id=10200621713298754

Only in Africa

Power Ranking #9 – Hurricanes
The Hurricanes have managed the rare feat of starting with the same team in consecutive weeks. Could coach Mark Hammett have hit on the novel theory that it is best not to change a winning side? Or even more revelatory, that consistency of selection leads to consistency of performance? He obviously wasn’t thinking like this when he put Beauden Barrett to fullback and Tusi Pisi to first-five for two games. Might he look back on that decision after this campaign and sigh…rather long and hard?

Power Ranking #1 – Bulls:
The Bulls don’t do subtle or risk-taking. They have carried the ball less than any other side and beaten fewer defenders than any other side. They have made the third lowest number of offloads, gained the third lowest number of metres with ball in hand. They have the best lineout in the competition – and while not measurable – the best rolling maul and the most prolific goal-kicker. If ever there was a team that believed in substance over style – it is them.

Pumas coach Jimmy Stonehouse, probably he best SA coach not coaching at the A level, will have done his homework after the loss against the Lions in the regular season and the Pumas will be competitive up front and at the breakdowns. With the number 2 points scorer in their midst they will look for penalty opportunities and opportunities to put speedster Rosko Speckman into space.

Against WP the Golden Lions were guilty of over-eagerness and indiscipline that lead to mistakes and a slew of penalties that kept WP in the game and this they cannot afford against the Pumas. Playing an attacking game is fair and well but the Lions will have to sharpen up on their discipline and play a slightly more conservative game. Allowing the Pumas to stay in the hunt through penalties can cost them on the night.

In the end the Golden Lions should have enough skill and talent to put the Pumas away but it is going to be a hard slog against a team of old hands coached by a wily coyote.

Lions by 12

Pumas: 15 Coenie van Wyk, 14 JW Bell, 13 Wilmaure Louw, 12 Stefan Watermeyer, 11 Rosko Speckman, 10 Carl Bezuidenhout, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Renaldo Bothma, 7 Jaco Bouwer, 6 Corné Steenkamp (c), 5 Eduan van der Walt, 4 Uzair Cassiem, 3 Ivann Espag, 2 Frank Herne, 1 Vincent Koch.
Replacements: 16 Jacques Momberg, 17 Corné Fourie, 18 Dee-Jay Terblanche, 19 Marius Coetzer, 20 RW Kember, 21 Jerome Pretorius, 22 Dewald Pretorius.

Golden Lions: 15 Chryzander Botha, 14 Deon Helberg, 13 Deon van Rensburg, 12 Alwyn Hollenbach, 11 Anthony Volmink, 10 Marnitz Boshoff, 9 Michael Bondesio, 8 Warren Whiteley (c), 7 Jaco Kriel, 6 Warwick Tecklenburg, 5 Hugo Kloppers, 4 Hendrik Roodt, 3 Ruan Dreyer, 2 Robbie Coetzee, 1 Jacques van Rooyen.
Replacements: 16 Francois du Toit, 17 Van Zyl Botha, 18 JJ Breet, 19 Willie Britz, 20 Ross Cronjé, 21 Dylan des Fountain, 22 Lionel Cronjé.

Inconsistent performances by the log leaders, poor performances by the South African sides and with the Crusaders and the Waratahs seemingly on the rise an exciting weekend of Super Rugby lays ahead and a difficult one to predict the outcomes as most of the matches could be close battles that can go either way.

In the Vodacom Cup the final between the Pumas and the Golden Lions is the Lions last game before the June test break and their final stretch of preparation matches starting with a game against Samoa.

My Superbru:

Last week: 3/6
Overall: 52/81
Percentage: 64.20%

Super Rugby:

Fri, 17 May
Hurricanes v Chiefs: SAST 09h35 – Westpac Stadium, Wellington

After a good stretch from week 3 the Hurricanes have gone off the boil a bit while the Chiefs have been struggling with their form and they have scraped wins against lesser sides like the Rebels and the Force. The Canes isn’t the attacking side of last year while their defence is really not up to standard either and with Conrad Smith out they have lost a valuable playmaker. The Chiefs however haven’t been the champion side of earlier in the season and their defence has been poor in recent weeks but they still scraped out wins.

Chiefs by 6

Hurricanes – 15 Andre Taylor, 14 Alapati Leiua, 13 Reynold Lee-Lo, 12 Tim Bateman, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Victor Vito (c), 7 Jack Lam, 6 Faifili Levave, 5 Jason Eaton, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Ben May, 2 Ash Dixon, 1 Ben Franks.
Subs: 16 Reggie Goodes, 17 Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 18 James Broadhurst, 19 Brad Shields, 20 Chris Smylie, 21 Tusi Pisi, 22 James Marshall.

Chiefs: 15 Robbie Robinson, 14 Lelia Masaga, 13 Charlie Ngatai, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Matt Vant Leven, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke (captain), 3 Ben Afeaki, 2 Hika Elliot, 1 Pauliasi Manu.
Replacements: 16 Mahonri Schwalger, 17 Ben Tameifuna, 18 Michael Fitzgerald, 19 Nick Crosswell, 20 Augustine Pulu, 21 Dan Waenga, 22 Save Tokula.

Rebels v Stormers: SAST 11h40 – AAMI Park, Melbourne

Normally this should be a piece of cake for the Stormers but they have struggled to decide on a game plan and nothing has come of their promised new attacking game. The Rebels, on the other hand, may not have won many games but the have lost five games by less than seven points and have in recent weeks pushed the Crusaders, Chiefs and Blues close. They might just be ready for another win but without Kurtley Beale and James O’Connor they just don’t have the strike power at the back to break the Stormers defence.

Stormers by 6

Rebels: 15 Jason Woodward, 14 Tom English, 13 Mitch Inman, 12 Rory Sidey, 11 Lachlan Mitchell, 10 Bryce Hegarty, 9 Nic Stirzaker, 8 Scott Higginbotham (captain), 7 Scott Fuglistaller, 6 Jarrod Saffy, 5 Cadeyrn Neville, 4 Hugh Pyle, 3 Laurie Weeks, 2 Ged Robinson, 1 Nic Henderson.
Replacements: 16 Shota Horie, 17 Paul Alo-Emile, 18 Luke Jones, 19 Gareth Delve, 20 Jordy Reid, 21 Nick Phipps, 22 Kimami Sitauti.

Force v Sharks: SAST 13h45 – NIB Stadium, Perth

The Force has the forwards to compete with any side in the competition but just don’t have the backs to use the possession they gain. Since their poor start the have beaten the Reds and the Crusaders, and have drawn with the Reds in their last derby match, while they’ve earned losing bonus points in four of their last five losses. Up against a Sharks team struggling with injuries and unable to get their backs into the attack the Force must be in with a chance. However, for the first time in quite a while the Sharks is able to field an unchanged match 22 with a slight reshuffle between the starting XV and the bench and I can’t bring myself to predict a win for the Force.

Sharks by 5

The Sharks: 15 Riaan Viljoen, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 JP Pietersen, 12 Meyer Bosman, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Patrick Lambie, 9 Charl McLeod, 8 Keegan Daniel (Captain), 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Franco van der Merwe, 4 Anton Bresler, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Kyle Cooper, 1 JC Janse van Rensburg.
Replacements: 16 Monde Hadebe, 17 Wiehahn Herbst, 18 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 19 Derick Minnie / Tera Mtembu, 20 Jean Deysel, 21 Tian Meyer, 22 Piet Lindeque.

Sat, 18 May
Crusaders v Blues: SAST 09h35 – AMI Stadium, Addington Christchurch

Both the Crusaders and the Blues have been inconsistent in their performances, great one week and poor the next and it will depend which of the teams bring their A game on Saturday. On paper the Crusaders should be too much for the Blues but players like Rene Ranger, Charles Piutau and Frank Halai can turn the match. However, given that the game is in Christchurch I’m going with a close win for the Saders.

Crusaders by 6

Crusaders: 15 Tom Taylor, 14 Tom Marshall, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Kieran Read (captain), 7 Matt Todd, 6 George Whitelock, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Replacements: 16 Ben Funnell,  17  Joe Moody,  18  Dominic Bird,  19  Luke Whitelock,  20  Willi Heinz,  21  Adam Whitelock, 22  Israel Dagg.

Blues – 15 Charles Piutau, 14 Frank Halai, 13 Rene Ranger, 12 Jackson Willison, 11 George Moala, 10 Chris Noakes, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Peter Saili, 7 Luke Braid, 6 Steven Luatua, 5 Ali Williams (c), 4 Culum Retallick, 3 Angus Ta’avao, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tim Perry.
Subs: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Sam Prattley, 18 Anthony Boric, 19 Brendon O’Connor, 20 Jamison Gibson-Park, 21 Baden Kerr, 22 Francis Saili.

Waratahs v Brumbies: SAST 11h40 – ANZ Stadium, Sydney

The Waratahs seem to have gotten their act together, have been able to be more consistent in their team selection as the injuries subsided and are on the rise while the Brumbies are coming off a bye, lost to the Crusaders in their last match and are playing away from home, all of which might give the Tahs the win. But the Brumbies have been one of the few consistent sides in the competition, most of the time anyway, and have the defensive and attacking structures in place to take it.

Brumbies by 6

Waratahs: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Cam Crawford, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Rob Horne, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Brendan McKibbin, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dave Dennis, 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Sitaleki Timani, 3 Paddy Ryan, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 John Ulugia, 17 Sekope Kepu, 18 Will Skelton, 19 Mitchell Chapman, 20 Matt Lucas, 21 Berrick Barnes, 22 Peter Betham

Brumbies – 15 Jesse Mogg, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Christian Lealiifano, 11 Joseph Tomane, 10 Matt Toomua, 9 Nic White, 8 Ben Mowen, 7 George Smith, 6 Peter Kimlin, 4 Scott Fardy, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Scott Sio.
Subs: 16. Siliva Siliva, 17 Ruan Smith, 18 Fotu Auelua, 19 Colby Faingaa, 20 Ian Prior, 21 Pat McCabe, 22 Robbie Coleman.

Bulls v Highlanders: SAST 17h05 – Loftus Versveld, Pretoria

The Highlanders are really due for a win but after their loss to the Kings there is no way that I am going to predict one. Not against the Bulls the way they played in their last few matches and definitely not against Bulls at Loftus. The Bulls seem to be back in a groove and are playing some good, balanced rugby and should be too much for the Clan.

Bulls by 20

Bulls: 15 Jürgen Visser, 14 Akona Ndungane, 13 JJ Engelbrecht, 12 Jan Serfontein, 11 Lionel Mapoe, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies (captain), 7 Dewald Potgieter, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Frik Kirsten, 2 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 1 Morné Mellett.
Replacements: 16 Callie Visagie, 17 Werner Kruger, 18 Grant Hattingh, 19 Arno Botha, 20 Jano Vermaak, 21 Louis Fouché, 22 Bjorn Basson.

Cheetahs v Reds: SAST 19h10 – Free State Stadium, Bloemfontein

After the Cheetahs performance last week the question is, have they topped out? Maybe not but against the Reds and the halfback pairing of Genia and Cooper I’m afraid that the Cheetahs just don’t half the flyhalf to win them the game. However, if they can get their defence back on track they should keep the score close and with the Reds having drawn twice already another draw is not impossible.

Reds by 6

Cheetahs: 15 Hennie Daniller, 14 Willie le Roux, 13 Johann Sadie, 12 Robert Ebersohn, 11 Raymond Rhule, 10 Elgar Watts, 9 Piet van Zyl, 8 Philip van der Walt, 7 Pieter Labuschagne, 6 Heinrich Brüssow, 5 Francois Uys, 4 Lodewyk de Jager, 3 Lourens Adriaanse, 2 Adriaan Strauss (captain), 1 Coenie Oosthuizen.
Replacements: 16 Ryno Barnes, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Rynhardt Landman, 19 Johannes Prinsloo, 20 Sarel Pretorius, 21 Riaan Smit, 22 Ryno Benjamin.

Top 5 players per position (UDT Fantasy League)

Outside backs: Frank Halai, Henry Speight, Raymond Ruhle, Charles Piutau, Jesse Mogg
Centres: Israel Folau, Joseph Tomane, Robert Ebersohn, Ben Tapuai, Johann Sadie,
Flyhalf (kickers): Christian Lealiifano, Quade Cooper, Morne Steyn, Beauden Barrett, Patrick Lambie
Scrumhalf: TJ Perenara, Piri Weepu, Will Genia, Jano Vermaak, Andy Ellis
Loose Forwards: Ben Mowen, Jack Schatz, Scott Higgenbotham, Liam Messam, Sam Cane
Locks: Brodie Retallick, Hugh Pyle, Andries Bekker, Rob Simmons, Francois Uys
Front Rows: Ged Robinson, Ben Tameifuna, Coenie Oosthuizen, Wyatt Crockett, James Hanson

Top Try Scorers

1. Frank Halai (Blues)    8
2. Henry Speight (Brumbies)    7
2. Israel Folau (Waratahs)    7
4. Tim Nanai-Williams (Chiefs)    6
5. Alfie Mafi (Force)    5
5. Cam Crawford (Waratahs)    5
5. Gareth Anscombe (Chiefs)    5
5. Jesse Mogg (Brumbies)    5
5. Julian Savea (Hurricanes)    5
5. Raymond Rhule (Cheetahs)    5
5. Rod Davies (Reds)    5
5. Scott Higginbotham (Rebels)    5
5. TJ Perenara (Hurricanes)    5
14. Bernard Foley (Waratahs)    4
14. Charles Piutau (Blues)    4
14. Ged Robinson (Rebels)    4
14. Gio Aplon (Stormers)    4
14. Lelia Masaga (Chiefs)    4
14. Robert Ebersohn (Cheetahs)    4
14. Willie le Roux (Cheetahs)    4

Vodacom Cup Finals:

Friday, May 17 2013
Pumas vs Golden Lions – Mbombela Stadium, Nelspruit

Lions by 12

Leeus vs. Pumas: Chryzander Botha; Deon Helberg, Deon van Rensburg, Alwyn Hollenbach, Anthony Volmink; Marnitz Boshoff, Michael Bondesio; Warren Whiteley ©, Jaco Kriel, Warwick Tecklenburg, Hugo Kloppers, Hendrik Roodt, Ruan Dreyer, Robbie Coetzee, Jacques van Rooyen. Reserwes: Francois du Toit, Van Zyl Botha, JJ Breet, Willie Britz, Ross Cronjé, Dylan des Fountain, Lionel Cronjé.

Jean de Villiers’s second try vs the Blues:

And I’ve said it before, the Kiwi sides seem so intent on quick ball and running their opponents off their feet that they forget to contest up front and when their opposition starves them of possession they are not looking very impressive. The Chiefs nearly lost to the Force whose up front game has picked up over the last few weeks, the Clan lost to a Kings side that dominated them up front and at the breakdowns and the Sharks tried to play the Kiwi game, without the skills required, and was left trailing at half time.

Unfortunately I wasn’t able to watch most of the matches due to a stuttering livestream.

My Superbru:

This week: 3/6
Overall: 52/81
Percentage: 64.20%

Super Rugby:

Chiefs v Force:

Not watched. The Chiefs are looking less and less like champions as they struggle to put away teams that should be easy beats.

Reds v Sharks:

In an effort to emulate the Kiwis running game the Sharks only succeeded in copying their weakness in controlling the game up front and were left stranded while the Reds ran in four tries to lead 29-3 by half time. For the Reds a number of players put their hands up for a spot in the Wallaby team none more than Will Genia, Quade Cooper and Rod Davies. The fact that the Sharks came back in the second half after their forwards took some control, and the Reds took their feet of the juice, when Anton Bressler, Willem Alberts and Derick Minnie got on the park doesn’t make up for the pathetic display of the first half and while they fought themselves close elementary errors late in the game cost them even a bonus point. All is not well in the Banana Republic and it could get worse next week against the Force, who have knocked over the Reds and the Crusaders so far this year and have upped their forwards game.

Cheetahs v Hurricanes:

Unable to watch the game I followed bits and pieces on Rugby365′s text commentary and it was a tale of knock ons, slipped tackles and basic errors. Clearly the Cheetahs were still on their break but all is not lost and they should be back but it will be tough next week against the Reds.

Blues v Rebels:

Not watched.

Waratahs v Stormers:

So! The Stormers decided to shelve their plans of a more attacking game and reverted to their tried and trusted game of yesteryear. They were fortunate that the Waratahs play makers did seem to notice the wide open spaces behind their defensive line and exploit it with chip kicks and grubbers otherwise the result could have been a lot worse. Some Stormers fans will be happy that they now again have a flyhalf without a creative bone in his body and that their coaches have chickened out from playing a more attacking game. They might as well send Elton Jantjies home as they’re just not good enough or brave enough to make use of his skills and talents. In the two games where they gave him the responsibility and freedom to play his game they scored seven tries and won. Fortunately they can try and bore the Rebels to death next as the Rebels will be without Beale or JOC.

Kings v Highlanders:

I only saw about 20 minutes of the first half and in that time the Kings dominated possession and territory and starved the Highlanders’ running backs of opportunities while attacking with intent. A great game by the Kings against a team loaded with international talent and a smile wiper for many, including me, as a confident Kings side is the last thing the Lions would want for the knock-outs. With three wins and a draw the Kings have exceeded most people’s expectations this season, even if their wins were all against the bottom feeders, and their performance must ring alarm bells for the high bonus executives in the SARU Ivory Tower. How will they justify risking the Kings in knock-out games to their political masters when they have performed so much better than expected and have had a successful season, whatever happens from here on in? Maybe Jurie Roux will “earn” his big bonus for a change and come up with an equitable solution.

One thing is certain the Kings is building up a nice head of steam and with the Sharks and Stormers out of sorts those derby games won’t be the guaranteed easy beats that was initially expected and the Lions have a lot of homework to do before the knock outs.

Vodacom Cup Semi Finals:

Pumas vs EP Kings:

The Pumas easily beat an EP Kings side that was weakened by the withdrawal of ineligible players as well as players to the Southern Kings to qualify for their first Vodacom Cup final.

Golden Lions vs WP:

A much more experienced Lions side ran in six tries to two against a young WP team to set up a final against the Pumas at Mbombela Stadium and a chance of their fifth Vodacom Cup.