Who do you want to ref your game?
October 17, 2012 in Uncategorized
People often feel that certain refs are against their teams but often without the “facts”. I looked at the Currie Cup refs since 2005 and some interesting stats came out.
Note: All matches were included.
Craig Joubert
The Bulls definitely want Craig Joubert as a ref but for the rest he is is quite even handed. Interestingly he has only reffed the Sharks once since 2005.
Bulls: W 12 | L 6
Cheetahs: W 6 | L 5
Lions: W 7 | L 6
Sharks: W 1 | L 0
WP: W 5 | L 3
Jaco Peyper
Definitely the Lions favourite ref.
Bulls: W 2 | L 3
Cheetahs: W 0 | L 0
Lions: W 6 | L 1
Sharks: W 5 | L 4
WP: W 2 | L 2
Jason Jaftha
Not one for the Bulls but the Lions and Sharks do well when he blows
Bulls: W 0 | L 3
Cheetahs: W 4 | L 4
Lions: W 5 | L 2
Sharks: W 6 | L 2
WP: W 0 | L 0
Jonathan Kaplan
A definite Sharks bias with Kaplan although the Bulls cannot complain either
Bulls: W 8 | L 3 | D 1
Cheetahs: W 3 | L 5 | D 1
Lions: W 4 | L 5
Sharks: W 17 | L 3
WP: W 6 | L 8 | D 1
Marius Jonker
Bulls and Sharks all the way with the Cheetahs doing well too
Bulls: W 10 | L 2 | D 1
Cheetahs: W 11 | L 8 | D 2
Lions: W 6 | L 7 | D 1
Sharks: W 15 | L 2
WP: W 7 | L 8
Mark Lawrence
Fairly even handed but the Lions and Sharks tend to suffer under him.
Bulls: W 11 | L 7
Cheetahs: W 8 | L 4 | D 2
Lions: W 5 | L 11 | D 1
Sharks: W 2 | L 7
WP: W 8 | L 4
francisco said on October 25, 2012
i see gert you even have a call that comes to mind lol….
gls said on October 18, 2012
Well in that case, totally unfair of me to rain on the fun parade!
gls said on October 17, 2012
I agree mostly with the above poster. For any unbiased results you need to control at least for a team’s win record that season and either for their opponent or their opponents win record. That way what you end up with is how much more or less likely a team is to win a game dependent on who is reffing.
I don’t think the sample size is large enough, but realistically you would also want to take into account the field played on and round of play.
Without any controls, for all we know, J. Kaplan happened to ref the Sharks at home, in years when they were very good, and against crap teams. While M. Lawrence reffed them away, against the best teams, in years they weren’t great.
If you have the data I’d love to play around with it and see if there’s anything there.
Baylion said on October 17, 2012
This was supposed to be a simple exercise, none of that statistically valid stuff
More for fun than anything else. People bitch and moan about refs being against this team or that but mostly that’s just perception, not fact.
But if you want, message me and I’ll send you the full spreadsheet.
gertbloues said on October 17, 2012
It would be interesting to see at what stage and against who each of these teams played when their match was handled by a specific referee. You cant really say that a ref prefers a certain team just because they won three more games under him than any other ref and those games were played against Griquas, Leopards and the Pumas.
gertbloues said on October 17, 2012
There’s quite a lot more that needs to be taken into account than just who was the ref on the occasion. Not many of the matches lost by a team can solely be blamed on the ref if any. Saying that a team’s playing style matches a certain ref is also bullshit.
Another factor is current form. While I would have wanted Kaplan to ref every game I have to watch two years ago, nowadays he doesn’t impress me at all and he makes a lot more mistakes than he did two years ago.
Based on this I would have Peyper ref a match that my team is involved in. He is the SA ref that has impressed me the most this season.
Kaplan has lost his edge. Lawrence has retired from test rugby and I think he also should be left out of the big matches. Joubert has lost a bit of form since the WC final. I haven’t seen too much of Jonker lately and I think Jafta must have another S15 and a test or two before he has enough experience to be given a big CC match.
But, following Jafta’s career for the past two years, I must say that I am impressed with what he has achieved so far. He is only 27 and has a long career ahead of him.
GEN DE LA REY said on October 18, 2012
Agree Jafta looks to be a very vair ref and handles a game well.
Jonker has had some shockers in favor of the Bulls over the years. The game against the Crusaders in 2010? comes to mind.
gertbloues said on October 18, 2012
I hope your not talking about the last try in that match.