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The myth of the Stormers defence

May 21, 2013 in Uncategorized

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The Stormers have become known for their resolute defence over the last few years and rightly so as they have conceded the fewest tries every year since 2010. This could lead one to the erroneous conclusion that their players are necessarily good defenders or tacklers, which is not the case, it is the Stormers’ defensive system that makes them a good defensive side rather than the individual defenders.

It is not that they don’t miss tackles or don’t make many ineffective tackles but rather that they cover the attack line of the opposition well, normally with more than one defender making the tackle. We’ve all seen them standing across the field like a Hadrian Wall on defence, leaving no gaps for the attackers to exploit.

FYI I pulled the tackle stats from Rugby Stats on their team and individual stats. There are two stats that look at the team and player’s effectiveness, missed tackles and ineffective tackles. Missed tackles are obvious, ineffective tackles are when the tackled player still completes a pass, an offload or scores a try even though he has been tackled.

All these stats are fairly meaningless, except when you are in a pub argument, as the stats that really matter in the end are the team’s log points and position.

Note: These are raw stats and do not take into account which teams were played, which players were tackled (obviously a back tackling a lock has less chance of success than a lock tackling a lock), etc.

Team Stats:

Statistically the Stormers is the most effective team when it comes to tackles with the lowest combined stat for missed and ineffective tackles but are worse than the Sharks and the Kings for missed tackles only.

Attempted Made Made % Ineffective Ineffective % Missed Missed % Combo %
Bulls 1792 1436 80.13% 92 5.13% 264 14.73% 19.87%
Cheetahs 2134 1715 80.37% 131 6.14% 288 13.50% 19.63%
Kings 2076 1672 80.54% 140 6.74% 265 12.76% 19.51%
Sharks 1709 1400 81.92% 122 7.14% 182 10.65% 17.79%
Stormers 1854 1525 82.25% 90 4.85% 239 12.89% 17.75%

 

Individual Stats:

I have left out some players because of limited game time, player like Eben Etzebeth, Jaco Taute, Scarra Ntubeni, etc.

Missed Tackles:
The missed tackle stat is the obvious one, a player slips off a tackle, gets run over, gets bumped, whatever and either the opponent runs on or someone else has to tackle him.

With 37.5% missed tackles Gerhard van den Heever is the worst tackler in the Stormers side and Rynhardt Elstadt (10.17%) the best while in the backline, excluding scrumhalves, Jean de Villiers (14.41%) misses the least tackles. It is interesting to see that the Stormers backline players are generally poor tacklers with only JdV and Bryan Habana under 20%.

Made Ineffective Missed Total Missed %
Gerhard van den Heever 10 0 6 16 37.5
Gio Aplon 26 5 11 42 26.19
Gary van Aswegen 44 4 17 65 26.15
Damian de Allende 24 0 8 32 25
Joe Pietersen 33 4 12 49 24.49
Juan de Jongh 57 6 17 80 21.25
Elton Jantjies 38 0 10 48 20.83
Bryan Habana 41 2 9 52 17.31
Jean de Villiers 92 9 17 118 14.41
Nic Groom 46 4 8 58 13.79
de Kock Steenkamp 99 2 16 117 13.68
Michael Rhodes 24 2 4 30 13.33
Siya Kolisi 138 7 20 165 12.12
Andries Bekker 107 5 15 127 11.81
Deon Fourie 110 5 14 129 10.85
Pat Cilliers 66 2 8 76 10.53
Louis Schreuder 8 1 1 10 10
Duane Vermeulen 104 6 12 122 9.84
Nizaam Carr 35 2 4 41 9.76
Dewaldt Duvenhage 44 2 4 50 8
Frans Malherbe 11 75 2 6 83 7.23
Steven Kitshoff 10 109 6 7 122 5.74
Rynhardt Elstadt 8 106 7 5 118 4.24

 

Missed and Ineffective Tackles Combined:

The missed and ineffective tackle stats rates a player on his effectiveness as a defender. Based on the combined missed and ineffective tackle stats Gio Aplon (38.1%) is the Stormers worst defender while Frans Malherbe (9.64%) is the best. It is with great pleasure that I can announce that, statistically, Elton Jantjies (20.83%) is the Stormers best backline defender, excluding the scrumhalves. :)

Made Ineffective Missed Total Combo%
Gio Aplon 26 5 11 42 38.1
Gerhard van den Heever 10 0 6 16 37.5
Joe Pietersen 33 4 12 49 32.65
Gary van Aswegen 44 4 17 65 32.31
Juan de Jongh 57 6 17 80 28.75
Damian de Allende 24 0 8 32 25
Jean de Villiers 92 9 17 118 22.03
Bryan Habana 41 2 9 52 21.15
Elton Jantjies 38 0 10 48 20.83
Nic Groom 46 4 8 58 20.69
Michael Rhodes 24 2 4 30 20
Louis Schreuder 8 1 1 10 20
Siya Kolisi 138 7 20 165 16.36
Andries Bekker 107 5 15 127 15.75
de Kock Steenkamp 99 2 16 117 15.38
Duane Vermeulen 104 6 12 122 14.75
Deon Fourie 110 5 14 129 14.73
Nizaam Carr 35 2 4 41 14.63
Pat Cilliers 66 2 8 76 13.16
Dewaldt Duvenhage 44 2 4 50 12
Steven Kitshoff 109 6 7 122 10.66
Rynhardt Elstadt 106 7 5 118 10.17
Frans Malherbe 75 2 6 83 9.64

 

There you have it. Use it, don’t use it.

Also read: The Stormers will never be Super Rugby champions

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by Baylion

2013 Super Rugby Round 14 Review

May 20, 2013 in Uncategorized

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The competition is getting interesting, not so much because of the quality of the matches but more because of the teams making their moves to contest for the top spots and other teams falling by the wayside.

In the SA conference the Bulls have established themselves at the top of the conference with the Cheetahs vying for a play-off spot while the Stormers are committing ritual Harakiri.

In the Kiwi conference the Chiefs are still tops but the Crusaders are making a run for it while the the Clan is all but ensured of the Wooden Spoon title.

In the Aussie conference the Brumbies and the Reds are struggling to establish dominance while the Force fight valiant but losing fights at the bottom.

This weekend’s matches were marked (marred?) by some very questionable TMO decisions.

In other news the Golden Lions won their fifth Vodacom Cup by comprehensively beating their Lions franchise partners, the Pumas and have now won more senior rugby trophies the last three years than the Bulls, Cheetahs, Kings and Sharks combined (Just thought I’d get a dig in :) )

My Superbru:

This week: 4/7
Overall: 56/88
Percentage: 63.64%

Super Rugby:

Hurricanes v Chiefs: 12 – 17 (Did not watch)

The Chiefs are scraping through wins to stay at the top of the log, this time away from home. The sign of a champion?

Rebels v Stormers: 29 – 21

A questionable TMO decision gave the Rebels a penalty try near the end that cost the Stormers their losing bonus point but even more questionable decisions by captain Jean de Villiers not to take points on offer really cost them the match. That and losing Elton Jantjies to a head knock after 60 minutes, which resulted in the Stormers attack dying a very quick death.

Accept it Stormers fans, without Jantjies your team cannot score tries. In the three matches the Stormers allowed him to play his game they scored 13 of their 20 tries so get over the fact that he missed his kicks against the Bulls in the first match of the season!

Force v Sharks: 13 – 23

A purple patch by fullback Riaan Viljoen livend up a game that was little more than a “getjommel” between two desperate sides. At least the win allowed me to remove the “Save The Sharks” image from my blog :)

Crusaders v Blues: 23 – 3 (Did not watch)

The Crusaders are starting to threaten and are looking to be contenders again.

Waratahs v Brumbies: 28 – 22 (Did not watch)

Are the Tahs on their way up or the Brumbies on their way down? The Tahs have won four of their last five games while the Brumbies have won only three of their last eight games.

Bulls v Highlanders: 35 – 18

The Bulls have moved into the second spot on the log and is on track for a home semi final. Two questionable TMO decisions, one for the Bulls and one against, marred the match but the Bulls are ticking over like a well-oiled machine at the moment and the Clan were never really in the game and two late tries make them look better than they really were.

One disturbing thing, though, young Jan Serfontein is being developed into a battering ram #12 and the danger is that his skill and talent might just be coached out of him.

Cheetahs v Reds: 27 – 13

It happens that the better team on the day end up losing the match and that’s what happened here. Apart from two individual tries by scrumhalf Piet van Zyl the Cheetahs offered nothing on attack but was brilliant on defence. Numerous breaks and runs for the tryline by the Reds were foiled by desperate last moment tackles and one cannot fault the defensive effort of the Cheetahs but hopes that they find their attacking nous soon. Bubbling just under the top 6 on the log the Cheetahs, with a bye in hand, will look to improve that position in the final stretch of the competition to get into the play-offs, something that looked farfetched before the season started.

Vodacom Cup Finals:

Pumas vs Golden Lions: 28 – 42 (Did not watch)

A slow start by the Golden Lions saw them trail 10-0 with a man in the sinbin before they started to fight back and eventually win their fifth Vodacom Cup quite comfortably.

See also The value of the Vodacom Cup win for the Lions

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by Baylion

The Stormers will never be Super Rugby champions

May 17, 2013 in Uncategorized

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As long as the Stormers insist in playing their uber-defensive style of rugby they will not win the Super Rugby competition. Letting in the least number of tries in the competition is not the way to Super Rugby success.

A strong defence that allows a team to concede the minimum number of tries will, however, ensure that the team end in the top six and the play-offs. Only once since Super Rugby went professional in 1996 have the team that conceded the least number of tries ended outside the top six, in 2003 the Reds finished 10th.

While the “best” defensive team is virtually guaranteed of a play-off spot it’s chance of winning the competition is almost zero. Only twice since 1996 has the team that conceded the least number of tries won the competition, the Crusaders in 2008 and the Blues in 2003, even though they have often finished in the top two spots guaranteeing them home semi finals, a total of 8 times in fact and they’ve been finalists six times.

But if the Blues and the Crusader could do it the Stormers can too. Right? Wrong!

And the reason is that in 2003 and 2008, when the Blues and the Crusaders were the best defensive sides the were also the best attacking sides, scoring the most tries in those years.

In fact, nine times since 1996 the Super Rugby champion was also the team that scored the most tries in the regular season and the lowest try scoring ranking for a champion has been 5th.

The moral of the story is that Super Rugby champions are teams that are balanced on attack and defence but, first and foremost, they are attacking sides. The champions of the past have ranked mostly in the top 6 and as low as 9th on defence, but never lower than 5th on attack.

The Stormers, before the season started, professed that they will be looking to score more tries this year but that goal has gone of the rails. They started shakily against the Bulls, went defensive against the Sharks, then went all out against the Chiefs and the Brumbies scoring seven tries but conceding five and got such a fright that they reined in their attack until it dwindled to virtually nothing.

Now they are back to the being the best defensive side and in their comfort zone, a zone that will bring them no trophies unless they are prepared to break out and up their attacking prowess their supporters will have to be satisfied with a good but not good enough team.

Just as an example of the Stormers’ mindset: For the game against the Rebels Allister Coetzee selected Elton Jantjies to “spark the attack” but at the same time hobbled him, “He must make sure that there is a low error-rate”. This is telling him to be creative but not to take any risks. It seems Coetzee has learned nothing from his chat with the former All Black coach Graham Henry.

I wonder if the same will show up in the Currie Cup stats. For interest I looked at 2012, which WP won, and saw they had the second best defence, behind the Sharks, but they also had the second best attack, also behind the Sharks.

Insert:  The post was written before today’s match against the Rebels. Interesting to note that 13 of the Stormers 20 tries were scored when Elton Jantjies was given the freedom to play his game rather than forced into the Stormers conservative game plan. However, playing a more attacking game is no excuse for the poor defence that lead to Higgenbotham and Pyle’s tries.

Note: In this post I equate Defence with tries let in and Attack with tries scored.

Super Rugby since 1996

Tries let in

Year #1 #2 Champion Least Tries
2012 Stormers 21 Chiefs 30 Chiefs 2nd Stormers 21 1st
2011 Reds 32 Stormers 18 Reds 6th Stormers 18 2nd
2010 Bulls 32 Stormers 17 Bulls 6th Stormers 17 2nd Finalist
2009 Bulls 33 Chiefs 30 Bulls 6th Waratahs 21 5th
2008 Crusaders 20 Waratahs 21 Crusaders 1 st Crusaders 20 1st Finalist
2007 Sharks 18 Bulls 22 Bulls 5th Brumbies 16 5th
2006 Crusaders 19 Hurricanes 23 Crusaders 2nd Waratahs 17 3rd
2005 Crusaders 34 Waratahs 19 Crusaders 8th Waratahs 19 2nd Finalist
2004 Brumbies 29 Crusaders 39 Brumbies 2nd Reds 28 10th
2003 Blues 19 Crusaders 26 Blues 1st Blues 19 1st Finalist
2002 Crusaders 29 Waratahs 33 Crusaders 4th Highlanders 20 4th
2001 Brumbies 17 Sharks 24 Brumbies 1st Brumbies 17 1st Finalist
Cats 17 3rd
2000 Brumbies 12 Crusaders 33 Crusaders 7th Brumbies 12 1st Finalist
1999 Reds 18 Stormers 26 Crusaders 9th Brumbies 14 5th
1998 Blues 33 Crusaders 31 Crusaders 4th Reds 22 5th
1997 Blues 30 Brumbies 36 Blues 2nd Crusaders 24 6th
1996 Reds 26 Blues 41 Blues 8th Bulls 23 3rdv

 

Tries scored:

Year #1 #2 Champion Most Tries
2012 Stormers 28 Chiefs 47 Chiefs 3rd Hurricanes 58 8th
2011 Reds 45 Stormers 33 Reds 3rd Waratahs 48 5th
2010 Bulls 47 Stormers 36 Bulls 1st Bulls 47 1st
Blues 47 7th
2009 Bulls 37 Chiefs 43 Bulls 5th Hurricanes 49 3rd
2008 Crusaders 49 Waratahs 33 Crusaders 1st Crusaders 49 1st
2007 Sharks 41 Bulls 45 Bulls 4th Crusaders 47 3rd
2006 Crusaders 47 Hurricanes 39 Crusaders 1st Crusaders 47 1st
2005 Crusaders 61 Waratahs 38 Crusaders 1st Crusaders 61 1st
2004 Brumbies 55 Crusaders 37 Brumbies 1st Brumbies 55 1st
2003 Blues 53 Crusaders 45 Blues 1 st Blues 53 1st
2002 Crusaders 55 Waratahs 41 Crusaders 1st Crusaders 55 1st
2001 Brumbies 39 Sharks 34 Brumbies 1st Brumbies 39 1st
2000 Brumbies 48 Crusaders 43 Crusaders 2nd Brumbies 48 1st
1999 Reds 20 Stormers 29 Crusaders 5th Cats 37 11th
1998 Blues 49 Crusaders 37 Crusaders 3rd Blues 49 1st
1997 Blues 56 Brumbies 55 Blues 1st Blues 56 1st
1996 Reds 32 Blues 55 Blues 1st Blues 55 1st
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by Baylion

Friday Funnies

May 17, 2013 in Uncategorized

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Funnies and some of the New Zealand Herald Power Rankings for Week 13

It took the New Zealand Herald 13 weeks (and 9 losses) to move the Highlanders into the #15 spot but eventually they got there.

Enjoy the weekend!

Power Ranking #15 – Highlanders
Is it consolation or just plain wrong that after slumping to their ninth defeat – and this time to the lowly Kings – that the Highlanders should be rewarded with six players being named in the All Black wider training squad? Given that the Highlanders lead the competition in defenders beaten and are second in offloads, might it be fair to surmise, without putting too fine a point on it, that they are in fact spending 80 minutes each week running up their own arses?

Power Ranking #14 – Kings
The Kings responded to their hammering by the Waratahs with a win against the Highlanders. They were at times inspired and willing to take risks. “Tonight it came off and if it hadn’t the coach would have wrung my neck,” said captain Luke Watson about the two tries they scored from driving mauls after turning down the chance to kick for goal. Given the level of violence in South Africa, no one can be sure he was joking. Presumably he was – but then remember what the Boks were enforced to endure before the 2003 World Cup?

Bike Bar

Drinking problem

Power Ranking #13 – Force
The Force have rather unfortunately become the nearly men of Super Rugby. In recent weeks they have beaten the Crusaders, pushed the Hurricanes and Chiefs close and drawn with the Reds. They are a little frustrated – yet console themselves with soothing noises about having done their best. But according to the immortal line from Sean Connery in the not so classic movie The Rock: “Losers whine about doing their best. Winners go home with the Prom Queen.”

Power Ranking #10 – Sharks
The Sharks were poor in the first half last week, improved a bit in the second and were quite outstanding in the third – that is the post-match debrief. Kiwi coach John Plumtree was direct, committed and ruthless.“There’s some individuals there that just let themselves down big time,” he said. “This week we talked about how important our defence would be but there’s one or two players out there that are just out of form. I think we’re dead now. It’s just been a terrible season for us.”

Dalian ice cream truck

Great beer ad video

http://www.facebook.com/video/embed?video_id=10200621713298754

Only in Africa

Power Ranking #9 – Hurricanes
The Hurricanes have managed the rare feat of starting with the same team in consecutive weeks. Could coach Mark Hammett have hit on the novel theory that it is best not to change a winning side? Or even more revelatory, that consistency of selection leads to consistency of performance? He obviously wasn’t thinking like this when he put Beauden Barrett to fullback and Tusi Pisi to first-five for two games. Might he look back on that decision after this campaign and sigh…rather long and hard?

Power Ranking #1 – Bulls:
The Bulls don’t do subtle or risk-taking. They have carried the ball less than any other side and beaten fewer defenders than any other side. They have made the third lowest number of offloads, gained the third lowest number of metres with ball in hand. They have the best lineout in the competition – and while not measurable – the best rolling maul and the most prolific goal-kicker. If ever there was a team that believed in substance over style – it is them.

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Vodacom Cup Final Preview: Pumas vs Golden Lions

May 16, 2013 in Uncategorized

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Friday, May 17 2013
Pumas vs Golden Lions – Mbombela Stadium, Nelspruit – 19:05
lionsvspumas
Franchise partners the Pumas and the Golden Lions face off in the final of the Vodacom Cup after wiping the floor with the EP Kings and WP respectively. With largely unchanged sides, Jaco Kriel coming back from injury for the Lions the only change, it is two experienced and stable teams that take each other on for the minor honours of being the Vodacom Cup champions, a honour the Lions have had four times before.

Pumas coach Jimmy Stonehouse, probably he best SA coach not coaching at the A level, will have done his homework after the loss against the Lions in the regular season and the Pumas will be competitive up front and at the breakdowns. With the number 2 points scorer in their midst they will look for penalty opportunities and opportunities to put speedster Rosko Speckman into space.

Against WP the Golden Lions were guilty of over-eagerness and indiscipline that lead to mistakes and a slew of penalties that kept WP in the game and this they cannot afford against the Pumas. Playing an attacking game is fair and well but the Lions will have to sharpen up on their discipline and play a slightly more conservative game. Allowing the Pumas to stay in the hunt through penalties can cost them on the night.

In the end the Golden Lions should have enough skill and talent to put the Pumas away but it is going to be a hard slog against a team of old hands coached by a wily coyote.

Lions by 12

Pumas: 15 Coenie van Wyk, 14 JW Bell, 13 Wilmaure Louw, 12 Stefan Watermeyer, 11 Rosko Speckman, 10 Carl Bezuidenhout, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Renaldo Bothma, 7 Jaco Bouwer, 6 Corné Steenkamp (c), 5 Eduan van der Walt, 4 Uzair Cassiem, 3 Ivann Espag, 2 Frank Herne, 1 Vincent Koch.
Replacements: 16 Jacques Momberg, 17 Corné Fourie, 18 Dee-Jay Terblanche, 19 Marius Coetzer, 20 RW Kember, 21 Jerome Pretorius, 22 Dewald Pretorius.

Golden Lions: 15 Chryzander Botha, 14 Deon Helberg, 13 Deon van Rensburg, 12 Alwyn Hollenbach, 11 Anthony Volmink, 10 Marnitz Boshoff, 9 Michael Bondesio, 8 Warren Whiteley (c), 7 Jaco Kriel, 6 Warwick Tecklenburg, 5 Hugo Kloppers, 4 Hendrik Roodt, 3 Ruan Dreyer, 2 Robbie Coetzee, 1 Jacques van Rooyen.
Replacements: 16 Francois du Toit, 17 Van Zyl Botha, 18 JJ Breet, 19 Willie Britz, 20 Ross Cronjé, 21 Dylan des Fountain, 22 Lionel Cronjé.

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2013 Super Rugby Round 14 Preview

May 15, 2013 in Uncategorized

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With only three weeks before the winter tests and only six games left in the regular season of Super Rugby the push is on for the top six spots on the log. Only 16 points separate the top 11 teams and only four points between the top five with the result that every game from now on virtually becomes a knockout game pushing the losers down, further from the play-offs.

Inconsistent performances by the log leaders, poor performances by the South African sides and with the Crusaders and the Waratahs seemingly on the rise an exciting weekend of Super Rugby lays ahead and a difficult one to predict the outcomes as most of the matches could be close battles that can go either way.

In the Vodacom Cup the final between the Pumas and the Golden Lions is the Lions last game before the June test break and their final stretch of preparation matches starting with a game against Samoa.

My Superbru:

Last week: 3/6
Overall: 52/81
Percentage: 64.20%

Super Rugby:

Fri, 17 May
Hurricanes v Chiefs: SAST 09h35 – Westpac Stadium, Wellington

After a good stretch from week 3 the Hurricanes have gone off the boil a bit while the Chiefs have been struggling with their form and they have scraped wins against lesser sides like the Rebels and the Force. The Canes isn’t the attacking side of last year while their defence is really not up to standard either and with Conrad Smith out they have lost a valuable playmaker. The Chiefs however haven’t been the champion side of earlier in the season and their defence has been poor in recent weeks but they still scraped out wins.

Chiefs by 6

Hurricanes – 15 Andre Taylor, 14 Alapati Leiua, 13 Reynold Lee-Lo, 12 Tim Bateman, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Victor Vito (c), 7 Jack Lam, 6 Faifili Levave, 5 Jason Eaton, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Ben May, 2 Ash Dixon, 1 Ben Franks.
Subs: 16 Reggie Goodes, 17 Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 18 James Broadhurst, 19 Brad Shields, 20 Chris Smylie, 21 Tusi Pisi, 22 James Marshall.

Chiefs: 15 Robbie Robinson, 14 Lelia Masaga, 13 Charlie Ngatai, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Matt Vant Leven, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke (captain), 3 Ben Afeaki, 2 Hika Elliot, 1 Pauliasi Manu.
Replacements: 16 Mahonri Schwalger, 17 Ben Tameifuna, 18 Michael Fitzgerald, 19 Nick Crosswell, 20 Augustine Pulu, 21 Dan Waenga, 22 Save Tokula.

Rebels v Stormers: SAST 11h40 – AAMI Park, Melbourne

Normally this should be a piece of cake for the Stormers but they have struggled to decide on a game plan and nothing has come of their promised new attacking game. The Rebels, on the other hand, may not have won many games but the have lost five games by less than seven points and have in recent weeks pushed the Crusaders, Chiefs and Blues close. They might just be ready for another win but without Kurtley Beale and James O’Connor they just don’t have the strike power at the back to break the Stormers defence.

Stormers by 6

Rebels: 15 Jason Woodward, 14 Tom English, 13 Mitch Inman, 12 Rory Sidey, 11 Lachlan Mitchell, 10 Bryce Hegarty, 9 Nic Stirzaker, 8 Scott Higginbotham (captain), 7 Scott Fuglistaller, 6 Jarrod Saffy, 5 Cadeyrn Neville, 4 Hugh Pyle, 3 Laurie Weeks, 2 Ged Robinson, 1 Nic Henderson.
Replacements: 16 Shota Horie, 17 Paul Alo-Emile, 18 Luke Jones, 19 Gareth Delve, 20 Jordy Reid, 21 Nick Phipps, 22 Kimami Sitauti.

Stormers: 15. Joe Pietersen, 14. Gio Aplon, 13. Juan de Jongh, 12. Jean de Villiers (captain), 11. Bryan Habana, 10. Elton Jantjies, 9. Louis Schreuder, 8. Nizaam Carr, 7. Siya Kolisi, 6. Deon Fourie, 5. Andries Bekker, 4. Eben Etzebeth, 3. Pat Cilliers, 2. Scarra Ntubeni, 1. Steven Kitshoff
Replacements: 16. Martin Bezuidenhout, 17. Frans Malherbe, 18. Gerbrandt Grobler, 19. Don Armand, 20. Nic Groom, 21. Gary van Aswegen, 22. Gerhard van den Heever

Force v Sharks: SAST 13h45 – NIB Stadium, Perth

The Force has the forwards to compete with any side in the competition but just don’t have the backs to use the possession they gain. Since their poor start the have beaten the Reds and the Crusaders, and have drawn with the Reds in their last derby match, while they’ve earned losing bonus points in four of their last five losses. Up against a Sharks team struggling with injuries and unable to get their backs into the attack the Force must be in with a chance. However, for the first time in quite a while the Sharks is able to field an unchanged match 22 with a slight reshuffle between the starting XV and the bench and I can’t bring myself to predict a win for the Force.

Sharks by 5

The Sharks: 15 Riaan Viljoen, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 JP Pietersen, 12 Meyer Bosman, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Patrick Lambie, 9 Charl McLeod, 8 Keegan Daniel (Captain), 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Franco van der Merwe, 4 Anton Bresler, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Kyle Cooper, 1 JC Janse van Rensburg.
Replacements: 16 Monde Hadebe, 17 Wiehahn Herbst, 18 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 19 Derick Minnie / Tera Mtembu, 20 Jean Deysel, 21 Tian Meyer, 22 Piet Lindeque.

Sat, 18 May
Crusaders v Blues: SAST 09h35 – AMI Stadium, Addington Christchurch

Both the Crusaders and the Blues have been inconsistent in their performances, great one week and poor the next and it will depend which of the teams bring their A game on Saturday. On paper the Crusaders should be too much for the Blues but players like Rene Ranger, Charles Piutau and Frank Halai can turn the match. However, given that the game is in Christchurch I’m going with a close win for the Saders.

Crusaders by 6

Crusaders: 15 Tom Taylor, 14 Tom Marshall, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Kieran Read (captain), 7 Matt Todd, 6 George Whitelock, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Replacements: 16 Ben Funnell,  17  Joe Moody,  18  Dominic Bird,  19  Luke Whitelock,  20  Willi Heinz,  21  Adam Whitelock, 22  Israel Dagg.

Blues – 15 Charles Piutau, 14 Frank Halai, 13 Rene Ranger, 12 Jackson Willison, 11 George Moala, 10 Chris Noakes, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Peter Saili, 7 Luke Braid, 6 Steven Luatua, 5 Ali Williams (c), 4 Culum Retallick, 3 Angus Ta’avao, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tim Perry.
Subs: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Sam Prattley, 18 Anthony Boric, 19 Brendon O’Connor, 20 Jamison Gibson-Park, 21 Baden Kerr, 22 Francis Saili.

Waratahs v Brumbies: SAST 11h40 – ANZ Stadium, Sydney

The Waratahs seem to have gotten their act together, have been able to be more consistent in their team selection as the injuries subsided and are on the rise while the Brumbies are coming off a bye, lost to the Crusaders in their last match and are playing away from home, all of which might give the Tahs the win. But the Brumbies have been one of the few consistent sides in the competition, most of the time anyway, and have the defensive and attacking structures in place to take it.

Brumbies by 6

Waratahs: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Cam Crawford, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Rob Horne, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Brendan McKibbin, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dave Dennis, 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Sitaleki Timani, 3 Paddy Ryan, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 John Ulugia, 17 Sekope Kepu, 18 Will Skelton, 19 Mitchell Chapman, 20 Matt Lucas, 21 Berrick Barnes, 22 Peter Betham

Brumbies – 15 Jesse Mogg, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Christian Lealiifano, 11 Joseph Tomane, 10 Matt Toomua, 9 Nic White, 8 Ben Mowen, 7 George Smith, 6 Peter Kimlin, 4 Scott Fardy, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Scott Sio.
Subs: 16. Siliva Siliva, 17 Ruan Smith, 18 Fotu Auelua, 19 Colby Faingaa, 20 Ian Prior, 21 Pat McCabe, 22 Robbie Coleman.

Bulls v Highlanders: SAST 17h05 – Loftus Versveld, Pretoria

The Highlanders are really due for a win but after their loss to the Kings there is no way that I am going to predict one. Not against the Bulls the way they played in their last few matches and definitely not against Bulls at Loftus. The Bulls seem to be back in a groove and are playing some good, balanced rugby and should be too much for the Clan.

Bulls by 20

Bulls: 15 Jürgen Visser, 14 Akona Ndungane, 13 JJ Engelbrecht, 12 Jan Serfontein, 11 Lionel Mapoe, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies (captain), 7 Dewald Potgieter, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Juandre Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Frik Kirsten, 2 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 1 Morné Mellett.
Replacements: 16 Callie Visagie, 17 Werner Kruger, 18 Grant Hattingh, 19 Arno Botha, 20 Jano Vermaak, 21 Louis Fouché, 22 Bjorn Basson.

Cheetahs v Reds: SAST 19h10 – Free State Stadium, Bloemfontein

After the Cheetahs performance last week the question is, have they topped out? Maybe not but against the Reds and the halfback pairing of Genia and Cooper I’m afraid that the Cheetahs just don’t half the flyhalf to win them the game. However, if they can get their defence back on track they should keep the score close and with the Reds having drawn twice already another draw is not impossible.

Reds by 6

Cheetahs: 15 Hennie Daniller, 14 Willie le Roux, 13 Johann Sadie, 12 Robert Ebersohn, 11 Raymond Rhule, 10 Elgar Watts, 9 Piet van Zyl, 8 Philip van der Walt, 7 Pieter Labuschagne, 6 Heinrich Brüssow, 5 Francois Uys, 4 Lodewyk de Jager, 3 Lourens Adriaanse, 2 Adriaan Strauss (captain), 1 Coenie Oosthuizen.
Replacements: 16 Ryno Barnes, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Rynhardt Landman, 19 Johannes Prinsloo, 20 Sarel Pretorius, 21 Riaan Smit, 22 Ryno Benjamin.

Top 5 players per position (UDT Fantasy League)

Outside backs: Frank Halai, Henry Speight, Raymond Ruhle, Charles Piutau, Jesse Mogg
Centres: Israel Folau, Joseph Tomane, Robert Ebersohn, Ben Tapuai, Johann Sadie,
Flyhalf (kickers): Christian Lealiifano, Quade Cooper, Morne Steyn, Beauden Barrett, Patrick Lambie
Scrumhalf: TJ Perenara, Piri Weepu, Will Genia, Jano Vermaak, Andy Ellis
Loose Forwards: Ben Mowen, Jack Schatz, Scott Higgenbotham, Liam Messam, Sam Cane
Locks: Brodie Retallick, Hugh Pyle, Andries Bekker, Rob Simmons, Francois Uys
Front Rows: Ged Robinson, Ben Tameifuna, Coenie Oosthuizen, Wyatt Crockett, James Hanson

Top Try Scorers

1. Frank Halai (Blues)    8
2. Henry Speight (Brumbies)    7
2. Israel Folau (Waratahs)    7
4. Tim Nanai-Williams (Chiefs)    6
5. Alfie Mafi (Force)    5
5. Cam Crawford (Waratahs)    5
5. Gareth Anscombe (Chiefs)    5
5. Jesse Mogg (Brumbies)    5
5. Julian Savea (Hurricanes)    5
5. Raymond Rhule (Cheetahs)    5
5. Rod Davies (Reds)    5
5. Scott Higginbotham (Rebels)    5
5. TJ Perenara (Hurricanes)    5
14. Bernard Foley (Waratahs)    4
14. Charles Piutau (Blues)    4
14. Ged Robinson (Rebels)    4
14. Gio Aplon (Stormers)    4
14. Lelia Masaga (Chiefs)    4
14. Robert Ebersohn (Cheetahs)    4
14. Willie le Roux (Cheetahs)    4

Vodacom Cup Finals:

Friday, May 17 2013
Pumas vs Golden Lions – Mbombela Stadium, Nelspruit

Lions by 12

Leeus vs. Pumas: Chryzander Botha; Deon Helberg, Deon van Rensburg, Alwyn Hollenbach, Anthony Volmink; Marnitz Boshoff, Michael Bondesio; Warren Whiteley ©, Jaco Kriel, Warwick Tecklenburg, Hugo Kloppers, Hendrik Roodt, Ruan Dreyer, Robbie Coetzee, Jacques van Rooyen. Reserwes: Francois du Toit, Van Zyl Botha, JJ Breet, Willie Britz, Ross Cronjé, Dylan des Fountain, Lionel Cronjé.

Jean de Villiers’s second try vs the Blues:

devillierstry1

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by Baylion

2013 Super Rugby Round 13 Review

May 13, 2013 in Uncategorized

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It generally was a bad weekend for South Africa on the playing fields home and abroad with only the Kings managing coming away with a win but that’s not the worst of it, it’s the way that especially the Stormers and the Sharks lost that was so disappointing as these teams are custodians of a number of our Springboks.

And I’ve said it before, the Kiwi sides seem so intent on quick ball and running their opponents off their feet that they forget to contest up front and when their opposition starves them of possession they are not looking very impressive. The Chiefs nearly lost to the Force whose up front game has picked up over the last few weeks, the Clan lost to a Kings side that dominated them up front and at the breakdowns and the Sharks tried to play the Kiwi game, without the skills required, and was left trailing at half time.

Unfortunately I wasn’t able to watch most of the matches due to a stuttering livestream.

My Superbru:

This week: 3/6
Overall: 52/81
Percentage: 64.20%

Super Rugby:

Chiefs v Force:

Not watched. The Chiefs are looking less and less like champions as they struggle to put away teams that should be easy beats.

Reds v Sharks:

In an effort to emulate the Kiwis running game the Sharks only succeeded in copying their weakness in controlling the game up front and were left stranded while the Reds ran in four tries to lead 29-3 by half time. For the Reds a number of players put their hands up for a spot in the Wallaby team none more than Will Genia, Quade Cooper and Rod Davies. The fact that the Sharks came back in the second half after their forwards took some control, and the Reds took their feet of the juice, when Anton Bressler, Willem Alberts and Derick Minnie got on the park doesn’t make up for the pathetic display of the first half and while they fought themselves close elementary errors late in the game cost them even a bonus point. All is not well in the Banana Republic and it could get worse next week against the Force, who have knocked over the Reds and the Crusaders so far this year and have upped their forwards game.

Cheetahs v Hurricanes:

Unable to watch the game I followed bits and pieces on Rugby365′s text commentary and it was a tale of knock ons, slipped tackles and basic errors. Clearly the Cheetahs were still on their break but all is not lost and they should be back but it will be tough next week against the Reds.

Blues v Rebels:

Not watched.

Waratahs v Stormers:

So! The Stormers decided to shelve their plans of a more attacking game and reverted to their tried and trusted game of yesteryear. They were fortunate that the Waratahs play makers did seem to notice the wide open spaces behind their defensive line and exploit it with chip kicks and grubbers otherwise the result could have been a lot worse. Some Stormers fans will be happy that they now again have a flyhalf without a creative bone in his body and that their coaches have chickened out from playing a more attacking game. They might as well send Elton Jantjies home as they’re just not good enough or brave enough to make use of his skills and talents. In the two games where they gave him the responsibility and freedom to play his game they scored seven tries and won. Fortunately they can try and bore the Rebels to death next as the Rebels will be without Beale or JOC.

Kings v Highlanders:

I only saw about 20 minutes of the first half and in that time the Kings dominated possession and territory and starved the Highlanders’ running backs of opportunities while attacking with intent. A great game by the Kings against a team loaded with international talent and a smile wiper for many, including me, as a confident Kings side is the last thing the Lions would want for the knock-outs. With three wins and a draw the Kings have exceeded most people’s expectations this season, even if their wins were all against the bottom feeders, and their performance must ring alarm bells for the high bonus executives in the SARU Ivory Tower. How will they justify risking the Kings in knock-out games to their political masters when they have performed so much better than expected and have had a successful season, whatever happens from here on in? Maybe Jurie Roux will “earn” his big bonus for a change and come up with an equitable solution.

One thing is certain the Kings is building up a nice head of steam and with the Sharks and Stormers out of sorts those derby games won’t be the guaranteed easy beats that was initially expected and the Lions have a lot of homework to do before the knock outs.

Vodacom Cup Semi Finals:

Pumas vs EP Kings:

The Pumas easily beat an EP Kings side that was weakened by the withdrawal of ineligible players as well as players to the Southern Kings to qualify for their first Vodacom Cup final.

Golden Lions vs WP:

A much more experienced Lions side ran in six tries to two against a young WP team to set up a final against the Pumas at Mbombela Stadium and a chance of their fifth Vodacom Cup.

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No more ragging on the Sharks

May 10, 2013 in Uncategorized

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I’m calling a moratorium on my ragging on the Sharks until further notice and I am posting this image on my blog until they start winning again.save_the_sharks

 

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by Baylion

Friday Funnies

May 10, 2013 in Uncategorized

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Funnies and some of the New Zealand Herald Power Rankings for Week 12

Enjoy the weekend!

Power Rankings #2 – Chiefs

The Chiefs are justifiably angry about being victims of plain stupid TMO decisions made worse by Sanzar’s pompous and ludicrous defence that it’s okay to fling the ball forward as long as you appear to have attempted to have thrown it backwards. How confusing and nonsensical is that? Probably as baffling as the reasons the Chiefs still can’t find the same killer touch and intensity they had for nearly all of last year. Still, by Sanzar’s logic, as long as they appear to be attempting to win the title, they may be granted it regardless.

Video: Top 5 Bombed Tries Of All Time

An old joke paraphrased:

A Lion rugby supporter is having a quiet drink in a bar, leans over to the big guy next to him and says: “Do you wanna hear a Blue Bulls joke?”The big guy replies: “Well, mate, before you tell that joke, you should know something. I’m six feet tall, 105 kgs and I played rugby as a forward for the bulls. The guy sitting next to me is 6″2″, weighs 115 kgs and he’s an ex bulls lock. Next to him is a bloke who’s 6″5″, weighs 120kgs
and he’s a current blue bulls second rower. Now, do you still want to tell that Blue Bulls joke?”

The Lion supporter says: “Nah, not if I’m going to have to explain it three times.”

Weird!

Jean de Villiers: “I feel the cohesion between Juan and myself is getting better and better and is growing as a combination.” After how long? No wonder the Stormers have struggled to score tries!

Tattoos – you get what you pay for

I really don’t hate the Sharks

Kings Park is getting a new name sponsor, the Joburg company Growthpoint Properties, and will be known as Growthpoint Kings Park. That is a misnomer as the Sharks games have steadily been losing support at the field since 2011 and now draw less spectators per game that the Lions did in 2011 and 2012. Ellis Park by the Sea would have been more appropriate.

Workers seen painting Kings Park’s new name before the official announcement

Wise man was Einstein but even he was wrong sometimes

Power Rankings #3 – Reds

There are such fine lines in sport. The Reds were outclassed by the Blues two weeks ago yet scrapped away for a win to earn enormous accolades. Last week they were outclassed by the Force and scrapped away for a draw to earn serious derision and a whole heap of questions about just what on earth they were doing for 80 minutes.

Power Rankings #5 – Crusaders

Was victory against the Brumbies a genuine revival or a dead cat bounce? It’s increasingly hard to tell just what the Crusaders are all about this year as they tend to follow the sublime with the ridiculous. One thing indisputable – with Dan Carter at the helm they are an infinitely better team: watch him build his form ahead of the French series and in doing so, drag the Crusaders up the table.

Power Rankings #9 – Waratahs

The Waratahs have to go from facing the worst defensive side in the competition to the best. They have to go from South Africa to Australia to take on that particular challenge as well. That’s a bit like having to climb Mount Cook in your undies – phenomenally difficult yet no one will really ever appreciate just what it took to achieve.

Power Rankings #10 – Stormers

Stormers coach Allister Coetzee reckoned it was highly unusual for a side to score two tries and lose the game. Eh…possibly not that unusual: the Rebels, Hurricanes, Sharks, Brumbies and even the Kings all scored two tries and lost at the weekend. Is this indicative of the level of analysis at the Stormers? Probably not as they seemed to be certain they had a perfect handle on the abilities of the assistant referee they encountered against the Hurricanes. It’s more likely reflective of their mindset that they reckon scoring two tries a game is outrageously creative.

Love is all around us

Power Rankings #14 – Highlanders

The horrible thing about breaking a losing streak is that once the initial elation subsides, the victory brings inevitable regret – as in ‘how come we waited until our season had all the prospects of Aaron Gilmour before we pulled finger and gave the impression that we actually cared? Why didn’t we play like this earlier? Oh why…why…why.’

More Power Rankings: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/rugby/news/article.cfm?c_id=80&objectid=10882570

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Vodacom Cup Semi Finals Preview

May 8, 2013 in Uncategorized

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The Vodacom Cup has reached the business end of the competition with the Golden Lions taking on WP in Johannesburg and the Pumas playing the EP Kings in Nelspruit. For the Lions the opportunity to play “match play” games benefits their preparations for the Wooden Spoon knock outs at the end of July but to get full value they need to progress to the final and win that too.

Vodacom Cup Semi Final

Saturday, May 11 2013
Golden Lions vs WP – Ellis Park, Johannesburg: 14:15

Although not anywhere near their potential Super Rugby team the Lions will field a very experienced match 22 against a very young WP side. Last week’s match 22 for WP had an average age is 22.50 with only seven of their players over 22 with just over 373 senior caps and seven Super Rugby caps to their credit compared to a Lions team averaging 24 years and with nearly 850 senior caps, of which 140+ are for Super Rugby.

Add to this that WP have lost their striker Cheslin Kolbe to the Baby Boks, had to replace an injured Rohan Kitshoff with Helmut Lehmann and are playing Tim Swiel at fullback, much to the disgust of some Swiel fans.

But in this apparent mismatch lies the danger. If the Lions aren’t careful and if they go into this game overconfident of success these youngsters could very well upset the apple cart. The Golden Lions team should have just too much talent and experience for this WP team but they need to take the game seriously and go out to win convincingly.

WP has scraped through a number of close matches during the round robin stages as well as in the quarter final against Griquas and can tough it out, if the Lions think they can play festival rugby on the day they could live to regret it. We saw last week how quickly a comfortable lead can disappear and the game be lost when the EP Kings beat the Blue Bulls after being 13-31 behind.

LIONS to beat Western Province by 20

Golden Lions: 15 Chryzander Botha, 14 Deon Helberg, 13 Deon van Rensburg, 12 Alwyn Hollenbach, 11 Anthony Volmink, 10 Marnitz Boshoff, 9 Michael Bondesio, 8 Warren Whiteley (c), 7 Warwick Tecklenburg, 6 Jaco Kriel, 5 Hugo Kloppers, 4 Hendrik Roodt, 3 Julian Redelinghuys, 2 Robbie Coetzee, 1 Ruan Dreyer.
Reserves: 16 Francois du Toit, 17 Jacques van Rooyen, 18 JJ Breet, 19 Willie Britz, 20 Ross Cronjé, 21 Dylan des Fountain, 22 Lionel Cronjé.

15. Tim Swiel, 14. Pat Howard, 13. Berton Klaasen, 12. Mike van der Spuy, 11. Devon Williams, 10. Kurt Coleman, 9. Bolla Conradie (captain), 8. Rayn Smid, 7. Graham Knoop, 6. Helmut Lehmann, 5. Wilhelm van der Sluys, 4. Gerbrandt Grobler (vice-captain), 3. Chris Heiberg, 2. Stephan Coetzee, 1. Ashley Wells
Reserves: 16. Jody Reyneke, 17. Tjoppie Ferreira, 18. Taz Fuzani, 19. Sikhumbuzo Notshe, 20. Godlen Masimla, 21. Kobus van Wyk, 22. Dillyn Leyds

Pumas vs EP Kings – Mbombela Stadium, Nelspruit: 16:30

The Pumas remains one of the better sides of the smaller unions and they have the advantage that they play at full strength as they do not lose players to a Super Rugby team. The EP Kings, on the other hand, had to release a number of players to the Southern Kings, some due to injuries of key players, other due to rotation. It is puzzling, however, that the fit players released from the Southern Kings wasn’t taken up in the EP Kings team and that most of the replacements were a number of 19, 20 and 21 year olds. As it is the rather young and inexperienced EP Kings side stand little chance against a Pumas side full of “hardebaard” experience.

Could it be that the EP Kings would rather not face the Lions in a final and lose in PE, as would be the case if they both win? A loss in PE against the Lions might send a negative message to both their supporters and their players and they would rather not risk that?

PUMAS to beat Eastern Province Kings by 9

Pumas: 15 Coenie van Wyk, 14 JW Bell, 13 Wilmaure Louw, 12 Stefan Watermeyer, 11 Rosko Speckman, 10 Carl Bezuidenhout, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Renaldo Bothma, 7 Jaco Bouwer, 6 Corné Steenkamp (c), 5 Eduan van der Walt, 4 Uzair Cassiem, 3 Ivann Espag, 2 Frank Herne, 1 Vincent Koch.
Replacements:
16 Jacques Momberg, 17 Corné Fourie, 18 Dee-Jay Terblanche, 19 Marius Coetzer, 20 RW Kember, 21 Jerome Pretorius, 22 Dewald Pretorius

Kings: 15 Kayle van Zyl, 14 Michael Killian, 13 Wayne Stevens, 12 Tiger Mangweni, 11 Brian Skosana, 10 Wesley Dunlop, 9 Scott Mathie, 8 Paul Schoeman, 7 Mpho Mbioyzo (c), 6 Tomas Leonardi, 5 Darron Nell, 4 Stefan Willemse, 3 KP du Plessis, 2 Boetie Britz, 1 Lizo Gqoboka.
Replacements: 16 Dane van der Westhuyzen, 17 Brendan Olivier, 18 Samora Fihlani, 19 Dalton Davis, 20 Dwayne Kelly, 21 Marlou van Niekerk, 22 Lonwabo Ntleki.

http://lionspride.co.za/vodacom-cup-semi-finals-preview