S15 – playoff structure and possible permutations

Playoff structure works as follows:

  • The winners of each conference will make the six-team playoffs, followed by the next three teams with the most competition points, regardless of conference positions.
  •  The top two seeds receive a bye in the first week of the sudden-death playoffs
  • Playoffs – week one: third seed plays sixth seed; and fourth seed plays fifth seed
  • Playoffs – week two: top seed plays winner for 4 v 5; second seed plays winner of 3 v 6
  • Playoffs – week three: Semifinal winners meet in final

Log points at this stage

South African Conference  
Rank Team

Played

Won

Points
1 Stormers

15

13

62
2 Bulls

15

9

54
3 Sharks

15

9

54
4 Cheetahs

15

5

38
5 Lions

15

3

25
New Zealand Conference  
Rank Team

Played

Won

Points  
1 Chiefs

15

12

63  
2 Crusaders

15

10

56  
3 Hurricanes

15

9

53  
4 Highlanders

16

9

46  
5 Blues

15

3

28  
Australian Conference  
Rank Team

Played

Won

Points  
1 Brumbies

15

10

58  
2 Reds

15

10

53  
3 Waratahs

15

4

35  
4 Rebels

15

4

31  
5 Force

15

3

27  

 

Combined Log
Rank Team

Played

Won

Points
1 Chiefs

15

12

63

2 Stormers

15

13

62

3 Brumbies

15

10

58

4 Crusaders

15

10

56

5 Bulls

15

9

54

6 Sharks

15

9

54

7 Reds

15

10

53

8 Hurricanes

15

9

53

9 Highlanders

16

9

46

10 Cheetahs

15

5

38

11 Waratahs

15

4

35

12 Rebels

15

4

31

13 Blues

15

3

28

14 Force

15

3

27

15 Lions

15

3

25

 

Most important weekend games

  • Chiefs vs Hurricanes; this match will determine whether the Chiefs end on top of the log. A five pointer will give them 68 log points; 4 points will see them on 67 and 1 point on 64. The Hurricanes need to win this weekend and the Bulls, the Sharks and Reds to lose for them to move into the top 6.
  • Stormers vs Rebels; will determine whether Stormers will end on top of the log or not. A five pointer will give them 67 and a 4 pointer will see them end on 66 log points. Losing with a bonus point will see them on 63 and still enough to end second if the Brumbies win without a bonus point.
  • Brumbies against the Blues. Brumbies need 1 point to end in 3rd place on the log (top of the Aussie conference).
  • Bulls against the Lions. A five pointer on the weekend will give them 59 points and a probable 4th place. A loss could see them overtaken by the Sharks, Hurricanes and Reds.
  • Sharks vs Cheetahs. A five pointer will see them on 59 points and a 4 pointer on 58. They can be overtaken by the Canes and the Reds.

Possible scenarios

Here is a breakdown of most probable scenarios after the weekend.

Team Points range Most probable Place
Chiefs 63 – 68 68 1
Stormers 62 – 68 67 2
Brumbies 59 – 64 64 3
Crusaders 56 – 61 61 4
Bulls 54 – 59 59 5
Sharks 54 – 59 58 6

 

The dark horse is the Reds that can slip in above the Bulls or the Sharks. The Hurricanes can also slip in above the Bulls and Sharks.

Playoff scenario

Round 1 4 against 5 Crusaders vs Bulls
Round 2 3 against 6 Brumbies against Sharks
Semi-final 1 2 against winner R2 Stormers against Brumbies
Semi-final 2 1 against winner R1 Chiefs vs Crusaders

 

5 thoughts on “S15 – playoff structure and possible permutations

  1. Canes now on 57. Implication is they can make the top 6 if the Saders, Bulls or Sharks lose. Implication is also that the Sharks and Bulls now just have to win to stay ahead of the Canes (they don’t need a bonus poin any more. Lastly the Stormers will move into top spot if they win. That will in all probability culminate in a round two play off between the Stormers and Saders in Cape town.

  2. Jeez, with brumbies losing the permutations are getting really interesting. Reds can now end with similar log point than the Brumbies (58) if they win the Waraths with a bonus point. Bulls and sharks will also end with 58 if they win without a bonus point. So potentially fourth teams (Brumbies, Reds, Sharks and Reds) ending with 58 points on the log. Really important for the bulls and sharks to enforce bonus point wins this weekend.

  3. Stormers on 66 points – No 1 on the overall log. Chiefs in 2 nd place on 64. Reds move into 3rd place with 58. Crusaders in 4th with 61 points. Canes and Brumbies now in waiting too see if they make the playoffs. Bulls and Sharks need to secure bonus point wins. So far it’s not looking like its going to happen for the Sharks.




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