Perhaps the toughest week yet to predict.
March 22, 2012 in Uncategorized
Week 5 of the 2012 Super 15 is upon us and with the midweek holiday behind us, I feel slightly pressed for time, having only one day to make my Superbru picks and sell my Chiefs players on Testrugby.com.
Round 5 is already causing some headaches before it even started. Not to kill the bit of optimism you might have left but round 5 might be the toughest to predict yet. here’s why…
The weekend’s action starts early Friday morning with a NZ derby, the 14th placed Blues(home) square off against the 8th placed Hurricanes, home ground advantage to the Blues, Weepu at 10, Wulf back on the wing, Kaino and Toeava astill out injured, Mathewson back in the number 9 jersey and Luke Braid suspended the Blues have a mixed bag of positives and negatives ahead of teh clash, they’ve only won one game thus far, despite being tipped as possible dark horse title contenders prior to the start of the season. They will however have travelled back from SA during the week, The Hurricanes have been the surprise package of NZ, after letting go the majority of their All Black stars for the 2012 season, few expected them to impress, however with young FH sensation Beauden Barrett at the helm they’ve looked very dangerous at times. No doubt this game can easily go either way. I’ve picked purely on form. Hurricanes by 3.
The two bottom of the log Australian teams also take each other on Friday, the Force coming from a close win over the Waratahs and the Rebels coming off a close loss to the Cheetahs. These Australian derbies have yet again proved last week that they are as unpredictable as ever. I have no idea why, but I’ve gone for a Rebels win by 3…they are the home team.
The Sharks kick off their tour against the Waratahs very early on Saturday morning, the Sharks displayed great fighting spirit to beat the Reds in round 4, while the Waratahs went down against the Force. For me the Sharks should be huge favourites here, they are the form team, they are the settled team in comparison(combinations wise) and they will be extremely positive after their come from behind win in round 4, however the travelling aspect might come in to play, quite a few inexperienced members of their squad might take some time to adjust to the enviroment, a stat that counts in favour if the Sharks team is that they’re yet to win an away game this season, and the furthest they’ve travelled is Capetown. Still doubting the Sharks’ consistency, I’ve gone for the home team, just, Waratahs by 2.
The Crusaders will return from their bye against the Cheetahs at home, the Cheetahs have done surprisingly well on tour, picking up 5 points from 2 encounters, and we all know just how close they came to making it two wins from two. The Crusaders have finally moved Israel Dagg back to fullback, and Dan Carter will make his return from the bench, The Cheetahs are either trying to fool the Crusaders into false confidence by selecting a new frontrow and again benching Piet van Zyl and Ashley Johnson OR they might be doubting their chances of picking up a win against the Crusaders in NZ, and have rather selected a somewhat understrength line-up with their focus on the Hurricanes in round 6? This is the most obvious pick of the week, but the Cheetahs have shown they won’t simply be taken lightly. Crusaders by 13
The top of the log Highlanders(who’ve been great) are travelling to Canberra to face the Brumbies, the Brumbies have picked up points from their bye and a lucky win over the Cheetahs which sees them 6th on the log, a flattering popsition in my opinion. The Highlanders should be the better team, players like Kade Poki and Hosea Gear should rip the Brumbies to shreds in theory, but as we’ve seen this year, teams have seldom displayed the killer instinct needed to close out a game, trailing teams always seem to come back, and close scores are the norm. None the less, the Highlanders should win. I’ve picked them by 6.
Moving on to the two games played on SA soil ths weekend, The Bulls host the depleted Reds at Loftus, The Bulls have opted to break their trusted centre combination of Francois Venter and Wynand Olivier, and have opted to bring in Johann Sadie(who returns from injury) at outside centre, shiftin Olivier to #12, a mistake in my opinion, but against a makeshift Reds backline, it could still pay off. The Reds have brought in a rookie Fly Half since all their FH cover was sent home injured. the Suspension of Ioane will also see regular bench players starting. The Bulls should easily win, in the forwards there won’t be too much in it, but the Bulls will field the superior backline(unless Olivier reverts back to his usual inside centre game) Bulls by 10
The Currie Cup winners will be at home to the Stormers in the final round 5 fixture, The Stormers are along with the Highlanders the only unbeaten teams left in the competition, and will hope to stay unbeaten after round 5, The Stormers have fielded an unchanged team to face the Lions, while the Lions haven’t had that luxury, they have some serious injury issues, and John Mitchell has said this is the worse injury crisis he has ever experienced in his career. I’m expecting a depleted Lions team to be announced, and therefor a Stormers win seems to be the logical choice, however with these SA derbies there’s usually very little in it, teams seem to up their game for these clashes, I’m expecting the Lions to put up a big fight, complacency might still be an issue for the Stormers specially if they are to face a weakened Lions side. Stormers by 11
Sarchasm said on March 26, 2012
hahaha ja ja ja ja rub it in, why don’t you.
hanjooveres said on March 26, 2012
feel free to delete your 22 Mar 2012 17:18 Comment Powa
hanjooveres said on March 23, 2012
4 tries in 30minutes, everything but boring it seems.
hanjooveres said on March 23, 2012
I feel quite wise at this moment, but if you look at mu Superbru standing, you won’t be blamed for arguing otherwise.
PHILABSMUTS said on March 23, 2012
aAAAGH! That’s what you get when you make predictions with 1 minute to go. I grovel before your infinite wisdom O’ Mighty Hanjo.
hanjooveres said on March 23, 2012
you know the Blues just lost , yes?
PHILABSMUTS said on March 23, 2012
Hurricanes by 3? Ooh – Phil goes one up. Go Blues.
hanjooveres said on March 23, 2012
we appear to be in the exact opposite position, with Hilton Lobbets on the Vodacom Cup bench…ridiculous
powachair said on March 22, 2012
Serious …. Rookie FH should be good enough if the forwards can keep him on the front foot. I think it will be a bit closer but then my Superbru is so shit, what do I know
hanjooveres said on March 22, 2012
not sure if you’re being serious Powa, the reds are playing a rookie FH, and look seriously depleted.
powachair said on March 22, 2012
Agree with all pics. Bulls by 10 might be a bit ambitious
hanjooveres said on March 22, 2012
strange how there appears to be a lack of depth at the top, but an abundance of depth at Vodacom cup level, I guess the depth is in the wrong positions…
I don’t really follow the Vodacom Cup though. the Girlfriend’s already complaining about me watching too much rugby as is.
czardas said on March 22, 2012
I think that was a great win for WP Vodacom team, I really did not think another team had the depth to field a team to match ours, and your lot did, and beat us.
hanjooveres said on March 22, 2012
Haha Czardas, thanks for the info, so remember you said we’ll see who wins between WP and the Sahrks XV?
I wasn’t really questioning the ability of the new prop, but just pointing out the fact that you guys have some injury issues at prop, and that there’ll be a considerable amount of inexperience in the 22…This game was one of the tougher one’s to predict.
czardas said on March 22, 2012
Nick Schonert – not the highest profile player, I’ll grant you that, but he did play SA u20 so hopefully can hold up his end should he be needed to.
rugga_fan said on March 22, 2012
after seeing the lions selection ill say stormers with 25+
hanjooveres said on March 22, 2012
will be a good game to watch, bunch of new faces,
I get Taute can play centre, but usually playing fullback gives you an edge, being able to beat the opposition defense due to being the extra attacker when you join the line…just fear he might lose that edge. but lets see.
Baylion said on March 22, 2012
Taute played most of his junior rugby at flyhalf and centre so bringing him closer to the action may work out. Coetzee played wing/fullback for the u/21s last year and Killian hasn’t quite shaken off his injury yet.
We can only hope.
The VC side is filled with youngsters anyway so we’ll see how they do this weekend
hanjooveres said on March 22, 2012
haha..can’t help but ask, do you guys still have enough players left to field a Vodacom cup team this weekend?
On a serious note though, That’s not a bad team, will be interesting to see how Taute goes at centre, he’ll be up against one of the better defensive centres in the world.
the pack is very similar to the one that faced the Sharks, so not bad at all. Kamana, van Rensburg and Coetzee as a back trio just seems a little light.
hanjooveres said on March 22, 2012
Force/Rebels should be another close fought boring Australian derby, Force might well take it, I have no idea. O’Connor magic and home advantage persuaded me.
On the Stormers, I’m yet to predict a big margin this season, I’m not courageous enough
Baylion said on March 22, 2012
Lions reshuffle:
15. James Kamana; 14. Deon van Rensburg, 13. Jaco Taute, 12. Doppies la Grange, 11. Andries Coetzee; 10. Butch James, 9. Tian Meyer; 8. Warren Whiteley, 7. Josh Strauss (Capt), 6. Derrick Minnie, 5. Marius Coetzer, 4. Franco van der Merwe, 3. Pat Cilliers, 2. Callie Visagie, 1. Caylib Oosthuizen.
Reserves: 16. Martin Bezuidenhout, 17. Jacobie Adriaanse, 18. Stephan Greeff, 19. Baywatch Grobbelaar, 20. Ross Cronjé, 21. Michael Killian, 22. Ruan Combrinck.
More changes in the backline than I expected
Pauljay said on March 22, 2012
I also chose the Hurricanes…I feel after the ‘moering’ the Stormers gave them, 24 hrs of flying, jet lag, injuries etc….the Canes might just do it…just!
The Force loose trio will ensure a win, I think and after I second guessed the Sharks comitment last week, I think they have too much for a slightly demoralised Waratahs team…other than that I agree with your pics…Stormers by plenty though!
hanjooveres said on March 22, 2012
and props, unless I’m the only one who’s never heard of Nick Schonert before
uysh said on March 22, 2012
Sharks having an issue with their locks….
hanjooveres said on March 22, 2012
haha…if Kurtley was fit, I would have been certain about that pick, but I have to concede I have no clue who’s currently the better team.
hanjooveres said on March 22, 2012
I like your confidence re the Stormers, but I’m not overly confident, I know we have a tendency to lower our game against a struggling side, the Lions aren’t that, but with the amount of injuries they have, we might see them as an easy win and be complacent.
I haven’t heard anything on Venter, an injury for me is theonly thing that would justify him being dropped, he’s been great. I also think Olivier is better at 13.
rugga_fan said on March 22, 2012
think your picks is spot on hey…. stormers by atleast 16+ their defense will kill the lions and force them into a hell of allot of penalties.
heard venter has a shoulder injury, dont know if its true though… only thing im worried about is that we dont have a fetcher… but cant wait to see arno botha in action…
PHILABSMUTS said on March 22, 2012
The Rebels by 3? Hmm! May the Force be with you.
hanjooveres said on March 22, 2012
After the Sharks team has been announced, I also feel more certain about my Waratahs pick.
1. Dale Chadwick , 2. Bismarck du Plessis , 3. Jannie du Plessis , 4. Anton Bresler , 5. Jandre Marais , 6. Marcell Coetzee , 7. Willem Alberts , 8. Keegan Daniel (Captain) , 9. Charl McLeod , 10. Patrick Lambie , 11. Lwazi Mvovo , 12. Meyer Bosman , 13. Tim Whitehead , 14. Odwa Ndungane , 15. Riaan Viljoen
Replacements , 16. Craig Burden , 17. Nick Schonert , 18. Steven Sykes , 19. Jacques Botes , 20. Frederic Michalak , 21. Marius Joubert , 22. Louis Ludik
hanjooveres said on March 22, 2012
I agree, it has worked for them. de Bruyn has also looked quite good in patches and he is experienced. For me their decision to drop WP, Davon and move Coenie to the bench(along with benching Piet and Ashley) is what got me uncertain about their intentions.
hanjooveres said on March 22, 2012
haha…that’s true. they have some good backs this year, being able to drop Venter completely is insane.
uysh said on March 22, 2012
Jup, tough picks this weekend….on the Cheetahs, I think it is purely strategic to have Johnson and van Zyl play off the bench as impact players. So far imho they make a far greater impact off the bench than starting and letting de Bruyn and whoever try and make an impact.
uysh said on March 22, 2012
The Bulls fielding a superior backline. Now there’s a line one would not read too often!