Bloues

What an exciting start to the 2012 Super Rugby season we had! If every weekend can produce at least four of the close matches played this weekend Super Rugby will have no equal in terms of excitement and quality.

Just a few points I picked up over the weekend.

1.)   1.)  The Crusaders are the early pace-setters for 2012. It can’t be overstated how important it is for the title contenders to win          their home games. A loss at home will mean that you’ll have to make up for it by winning an away match against another title      contender. An away win against another contender, as was the situation with the Crusaders on Friday, is a huge bonus. By        beating the Blues in Aukland on Friday the Crusaders have given themselves a huge advantage over the other title                      contenders.

2.)    2.) The teams will again have to adapt to the officials’ new law interpretation or suffer the consequences. The referees were            given instructions by SANZAR to make sure that the ball is available within three seconds at the breakdowns. No calls for              hands off or roll-away. If a player slows the ball down he must be penalized. This created a situation where defending teams      do not commit more players to the ruck other than the tackler, tackler assist and perhaps a fetcher. Although the call came to      ensure quick ruck ball and more attacking opportunities, the result at the moment better organized defenses due to                    defending teams not committing players to the ruck. It will be interesting to see how this situation develops over the course        of the season.

3.)    3.) There’s no such thing as a guaranteed win. Although one can expect the title contenders to win their home matches, no              team can afford to rest too many players for matches against the lesser teams. Especially away from home. All of the                    weekend’s matches could have gone either way, although I feel that the Stormers could have put their result beyond doubt        at half-time if it weren’t for some bad decision making either due to rustiness or a flawed gameplan.

4.)    4.) The Bulls can regroup faster than most people thought they would. It’s still early days and a lot can still happen, but the               truth is that the Bulls are a lot closer to being the force they were by beating the Sharks than they would have been if they         have lost that match.

5.)   5.)  There’s work to be done at Newlands. The Hurricanes seemed uninterested in winning Saturday’s match from the get go and       it was only the Stormers’ mistakes that made that game as close as it was. It may just be rustiness on the part of the                 Stormers or it can be that the Stormers are using a more helter scelter approach to make up for their lack of a specialized           fetcher. Either way, they should rectify the situation before they play the Sharks, because the Sharks have proved on Friday       how dangerous they can be on turnover ball. And their defense wont leak tries as easily as the men from Wellington’s.

6.)    6.) My newcomer of the week goes to Stormers replacement Siya Kolisi. Losing Schalk Burger is a huge blow any side, but Kolisi        more than made amends with his good runs and a well deserved try on debut. Honorable mention must go to Juandre                Kruger. Playing lock for the Bulls must have been pretty frustrating for any other player than Matfield, Bakkies or Rossouw,          but Kruger took his chance with a lineout steal at the death that Victor would have been proud of.

      That’s it for my conclusions for this week. You are welcome to add your views below. And, by the way, how much fun is it to finally be able to report on actual rugby for a change?! It was fun speculating about who the new Bok coach will be or bashing SARU about their cockups, but no sideshow comes close to watching some good rugger!

      Cheers!!!

      Bloues

In my previous post I posted a rather optimistic log showing the Bulls finishing first. This got the expected reaction from the few bloggers who read it.

Now, I will follow up on that post with how I think that is possible. (I promise its not because I borrowed JJ Harmse’s blue goggles – By the way, he actually posted a decent article this mornig. Have a look - SARU failing young talent | Sport24)

The Bulls probably have the most favourable draw of all the teams in the Super 15. Out of the five SA franchises they were definitaly dealt the best hand. They will spend the entire March and Arpril in the republic and they play the Crusaders and Reds at Loftus.

Here’s what I think the Bulls must get right if they want to make the playoffs this year.

1.) Make Loftus the stronghold it used to be. – The Crusaders’ victory in 1999 was the only time a team went all the way after finishing fourth. There’s no other competition in the world where home ground advantage is as important as in the Super 15. If they can make traveling to Loftus as daunting as it was for visiting teams in 2009 & 2010 then they can bag two important wins against the Crusaders and the Reds. Friday’s match against the Sharks and June 2′s match against the Stormers will also be huge home challenges for them.

2.) Do not drop the matches in Bloemfontein and Johannesburg. – The Lions and Cheetahs are not the pushovers they were a few seasons ago and away matches against these two franchises will be tough, but a South African title contending side should be able to win these matches. If the Lions can beat the Crusaders on their first match in South Africa and the Cheetahs beat the Waratahs later in the competition the competion will be wide open for the top South African teams.

3.) Manage at least two wins on tour. – This will be the hard part. Apart from the first match against the Rebels, the Bulls will play the Waratahs, Highlanders and the Chiefs on tour. If they want to stay in the fight for a home playoff spot they will have to win at least one of their last three tour matches and score a losing bonus point for one of the other matches. But, if they managed to tick off points one and two above, they will go on tour a lot more relaxed and settled than they would have been if they dropped two or three matches at home.

4.) Finish strong. – The Bulls will play the Stormers at Loftus immediately after coming back from New Zealand. This will be a tough nut to crack, but many players have spoken about the boost they get from being back home after a long tour. The June break will kick in straight after this match and then they’ll host the Cheetahs, travel to Durban and then come back to Loftus to face the Lions.

Much will depend on Friday’s result. A win against a very good Sharks team will lift this young Bulls side’s spirits and it will help a lot to tick off point number one. A loss will mean that they’ll have to get a result at Newlands to make up for it. This will also make facing the Crusaders and Reds a more daunting prospect.

A victory in their next match against the Cheetahs in Bloem will help take care of point number two.

If they can pull off these feats they will be hard to stop. This will lead to playoff matches in Pretoria and I have allready stated the importance of homeground advantage in this competition.

I know this is a very long shot. Nobody knows if Johan Sadie will live up to the expectaions. Pierre Spies may not be the captain Meyer hoped he would be and that flashes of brilliance we saw in 2007 & 09 might be the last we’ve seen of him. Du Preez’s apsence may be Steyn’s death nail.

Or everything can just fall into place on Friday night, then again on the next Saturday. Then suddenly teams will look at the Bulls differently. People will talk about their ruling of the lineouts, their agile centre pair, Steyn’s metronomic boot and Spies’ powerfull runs at the 5m scrum defence. And my world will be a happy place again.

My fellow Bulls supporters, this one’s for us. Lets not stop believing and, you lucky bastards living in Pretoria, go watch the game and add your voice to the Blue chorus, because our team can be great again!

Cheers!!!

Bloues

Ok, I created my own Super Rugby prediction tool (Bloues – It’s finally HERE!!!!!) and now I used it to my team’s advantage.

Here’s how my provisional log for this year’s Super 15 looks like:

Now, before you start yelling at me because the Bulls are at number one, think about this for a moment. I have gone through every match, looking every team’s prospects and this is what I came up with. The Bulls have a relatively easy season and they’ll be spending the entire first two months in South Africa. If they manage to beat the Sharks at home this weekend and they manage to build up a nice head of steam in the lead up to the home match against the Crusaders in the first week of April, they will go on tour with only one loss, against the Stormers at Newlands. The Bulls should be hard to beat at home and the fact that they will be hosting the Reds and the Crusaders will help them alot. If they can’t get a result from these matches, then the picture will look at bit different, but then they won’t deserve the position I gave them on this log should this happen.

Their away matches in this period is against the Cheetahs, Lions and Stormers. All of them will be tough encounters, but they should be able to beat the Cheetahs and the Lions and I counted the match against the Stormers as a loss.

On tour they will face the Rebels, Waratahs, Highlanders and Chiefs. They should beat the Rebels and come close to the Waratahs, ultimately loosing that one. The House of Pain never is an easy place for visiting teams, but if the Bulls can get the confidence they should get with their SA leg of the competition, they might be able to pull of close victories in NZ. This will be the real testing period for the Bulls.

Back in South Africa they will host the Stormers, Cheetahs and Lions. They should be able to win these and then they can afford to loose against the Sharks at Kings Park.

This just shows how possible it is for the Bulls to taste success yet again, but a loss or two at home, an upset in Jo-Burg or Bloem or a disasterous tour can make this a season to forget for the men in pink.

Cheers!!!

Bloues

Ok, now that I have your attention I would like to share with you what I’ve been doing with my free time this past two weeks.

Below you will find a link to a spreadsheet I created that can be used as a predictor for this year’s Super 15. It’s quite simple. You just enter how many tries, conversions, penalties and dropgoals both teams scored (Or would score, if it was up to you) in every match and the program will calculate the log and qualifiers based on the information you entered.

http://www.mediafire.com/?dj3arzlrq77ymjf

It can be used to keep track of the log as the season progresses, it can be used to predict the outcome if certain conditions are met and it can be used as a more scientific method of making Superbru picks.

I have done quite a bit of testing allready, but the more people use this program and give me feedback, the better this can become. So please download it and send it to whoever you think will use it. The more the merrier. If you find something similar out there, please let me know so that I can check it out.

If you have any questions, suggestions, compliments or complaints, just leave a comment on this post.

Enjoy!

Cheers!!!!

Bloues

PS – If you have downloaded it before 9:25 on February 21, please download again. The match between the Blues and the Sharks on April 13 was accidentally put down as between the Chiefs and the Sharks.

Many people have called for Bakkies Botha to take up boxing and organise a bout with Sonny Bill Williams. But, unless there somehow goes Playstation game on sale where you can create fantasy fights, this will not happen.

Enter Francois “The White Buffalo” Botha, a South African heavyweight boxer living in the USA. Botha, who in some circles is regarded as a former World CHampion, is a 42 year old veteran who was involved in bouts against Mike Tyson, Lenox Lewis and Evander Hollyfield. Unfortunatly, he lost against all of these opponents, with Tyson knocking him out in round six and Lewis putting him to the floor in round six. The fight against Hollyfield went all the way, but if this was Golf, Hollyfield would have been playing in the Masters series.

I must confess that I never supported Botha in any of the fights I watched. To me, he is a disgrace and I’m not very proud to call him a South African. His very arrogant media conferences, while being perfectly fitting for his chosen sport, together with his claiming of the vacant WBO title a few years ago not being recognised due to the fact that he tested positive for steroids leaves a bad taste in my mouth every time I see him fight.

But, Botha told the world that he is interested in a fight with Williams. (Botha targets Sonny Bill bout | Sport24). To be honest, I’m still on the fence regarding wether I want this fight to happen or not. On the one hand, despite everything I said about him, Botha is a genuine fighter and he’ll probably have Williams begging for mercy by round six. But, on the other hand, do we really want this guy to represent our country? I know boxing is an individual sport, but nobody will pass on the oppertunity to make something out of a big clash between a South African and a Kiwi. No matter what sport it is.

I don’t think Williams will be interested though. Until now he made certain that he’ll win his fights by organising bouts against cripples, drug addicts and pensioners. A fight against a real pro heavyweight fighter might ruin his reputation.

Let’s wait and see what happens. I, for one, wish Corrie Sanders was still fighting. Someone with a punch like his would probaply kill the Sonny of a bitch in round two.

Cheers!!!

Bloues

Michalack’s suspension for the match against the Kings got me thinking.

The whole story is allready bizarre with SARU only finding out the he is back in the country after they saw him play agianst Boland last week. Then they hastly arranged a hearing, he was found guilty and he was suspended for one match. This weekend’s warmup match against the Kings.

Now, I know how this will sound because I’m a Bulls fan and the Sharks will play the Bulls in the first round of this year’s Super 15. But just how much of a disruption is this really? I mean, banning him for a warmup match isn’t a very big punishment in my opinion. Why not ban him for the first match against the Bulls?

Lets look at this for a moment. Say Schalk Burger is suspended for one match in round seven of the tournamanet. Does this mean that the Stormers can hastly arrange a midweek match against the Kings to give their fringe players some game time? Then Burger will be able to play on Saturday because he served his sentence during the week.

Maybe there is some kind of legislation in place to cover a situation like this, but frankly I don’t see the point in banning a player for a warmup match.

Cheers!!!

Bloues

Heyneke Meyer’s appointment as Bok coach came with the expected praise and criticism. Those, like me, who followed his stint at the Bulls closely because of their allegiance to the Bulls saw him as the chosen one to lead the Boks to glory. Those who like to support their team but don’t care much for abusing the Bulls now and then are cautiously optimistic and then those who hates them simply because of their successful run between 2002 and 2010 (They say it’s because most of us are inbred, dof, overweight, commin, Afrikaans, you name it. But we know it’s because we kicked their buts more often than they kicked ours) live in fear of a Bok team laden with Bulls players and playing ten man rugby.

Most of these opinions don’t really matter though. It is impossible to find a room with three rugby supporters in it with less than four different opinions. This is either due to a lack of relevant information or ignoring said information (or both). Some people will say the Bulls play boring, ten-man rugby, others will point to their try scoring stats in certain seasons, which they themselves will choose to benefit their argument. Some people will say that the Stormers are trying to buy themselves a trophy, others will point to the Bulls’ recruiting of talent from other unions to defend this argument. Some people will say Allistair Coetzee is a great coach, others will say he haven’t won anything even though he had some of the best players in the world in his squad. And so on and so on.

This is why we turn to Gavin Rich, Brendan Nel, Tony Johnston, Keo and his puppets, Rob Houwing, JJ Harmse (Bare with me) Gary Boshof and many other professional journalists to hear their opinions because we feel that somehow they are better connected to our heroes’ inner circles than we are. We think they are in a better position to form an opinion than we are. But, most of the time, we are wrong. They know just as little about the sport as we do, they just write better than us.

http://www.sport24.co.za/Columnists/GaryBoshoff/Meyer-and-Div-too-similar-20120214

When I read Gary Boshof’s column this morning I thaught for a moment that I was reading a comment on Keo. While his previous article was a good piece of inside info from someone who was there when Meyer was apointed at the Bulls (http://www.sport24.co.za/Columnists/GaryBoshoff/Meyer-Hail-the-special-one-20120207), this one was just a summary of the paranoid wall post my WP friends left on Facebook.

He tells us about how Meyer wanted to play expansive rugby, but regressed to a more conservative style when his job was on the line. What he doesn’t say is that the Bulls did manage to play expansively and that gave them their first taste of Super rugby success.

The other point he made was that Meyer’s loyalty to his players may lead to Matfield’s return from retirement and that Fourie du Preez and Bakkies Botha might return for the Boks. The jury is still out on wether Fourie’s bad performance in the WC is due to a loss of form or just a slump after his injury. I’ve seen Bakkies play during the WC and, believe me, he will still be able to give oppostion teams a hard 60 minutes for at least two more seasons. But Heyneke will not select these players if he doesn’t feel that they can give something that no player in SA can give to the national side. Fourie at his best is the best rugby player in the world. Bakkies at his best is the best No. 4 in the world. Why not use them. And, conserning the selection of Bulls players, I can gaurantee you that there won’t be more than four Bulls players in the national side if the Bulls doesn’t perform in the S15. But there may be 10 in it if they win. This won’t be because of Meyer’s former allegiance to the Bulls. It will be because these players have proven themselves over the course of 16 weeks.

I’m not going too deep into the Steyn vs Lambie issue because it’s simple. Morne will have regular game time at the Bulls. Lambie may get more game time at fly half than we expected if Michalack plays scrumhalf, but if Morne kicks 85% of his goals, manages to get the ball to his wings when the oppertunity demands it and he manages to boot us into a better position than we were five seconds ago, he is the best flyhalf in SA and he must be the Bok no. ten. I don’t care if Lambie, Goosen or Jantjies is seen as the future of SA rugby and must be groomed for 2015. If one of them is the best flyhalf in SA by then, that player will be the Springbok’s fly half. But, when the 2012 Super 15 is over Heyneke must pick the flyhalf who performed the best during the S15 and in 2012 I think that player will be Morne Steyn.

Boshof’s statement about Meyer’s reluctance to transformation is probaply the most absurd statement in the whole article. During Meyer’s tenure as coach, we have seen players like Mametsa, Ndungane and Habana become legends. Heine Adams played a supporting role at scrum half for at least five years, Ralapele ocasionally captained the side, Kircsner and Basson joined the team from GW and they have two exciting youngsters in Abongo and Mastriet. And lets not forget Wyane Julies’ stint at the Bulls in 2007.

Together with these players there is Dale Sandton, McNeil Hendricks, Hilton Lobberts, Bandise Maku and Burtin Francis. All of them players who were given enough oppertunities to shine, but they just didn’t cut it in a union laden with talent. The same applies to the white players who didn’t cut it at the Bulls and are now playing elsewhere.

The fact that Meyer kept the culture at the Bulls fairly white and Afrikaans is seen by Boshof as a negative aspect. Meyer is white and he is Afrikaans. Thats who he is and thats the environment he feels comfortable in. But its not neccesarily a hostile one for non white or non Afrikaans players. If those players who felt they didn’t fit in were good enough, they would have stayed. Abongo, who scored three tries for the B side against the Cheetahs on Friday, is Kenyan. You can’t be further removed from an Afikaner environment than that, but Daniel is talented enough to tolerate this and be tolerated. Professional sport is about getting out of your comfort zone and adapt to your surcimstances. If you play in France, you must learn their ways and adapt. The same applies in England, Italy and Japan.

I can’t wait for the international season to start so that Meyer can show us why he sould have gotten the job in 2007. I also can’t wait for next weekend because four months is a very long time. Especially if the only rugby action you got was rumours and warm ups.

Cheers!!!

Bloues