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by Neels

Leaning more ‘Southernly’

November 22, 2012 in November Internationals, rugby

As we enter the third round of November Internationals, we have to lean more towards the Southern hemisphere teams with three of the big four – the All Blacks, Springboks and Aussies – winning their games over the past weekend. As the end of the year tours are drawing to a close, here’s what we can expect from the third round.

Italy vs Australia

The Aussies are becoming a more enigmatic team than the French of the past few years. At the end Castle Championship we saw them lose heavily against the Boks, only to draw against the All Blacks; receive a beating from Les Bleus, only to beat England a week later. In spite of all the pressure, suspensions, and a ton of injuries, Robbie Deans has found a mediocre formula that actually seems to function. Realistically I didn’t give them a chance against England, but somehow they defied the odds. Their journey only gets easier this coming weekend, taking on Italy in Florence. Look out for Berrick Barnes to dictate play from the back.

Italy on the other hand barely managed home against Tonga, only to be thrashed by an All Blacks side that looked a bit strange, in terms of selections (Barrett at fullback!?), compared to what we have been accustomed to. They might pose some questions to the Aussie pack with guys like Castrogiovanni in the front row, but all in all I can’t see them winning this game.

My Superbru prediction: Aussies by 7.

Ireland vs Argentina

Of all the European sides, France and Ireland have looked to be the best two teams. The Irish lost marginally to the Boks a few weeks back, and although they are still missing some their big guns (e.g. O’Driscoll) they are not to be underestimated. Johnny Sexton controls the game beautifully and with guys like Darcy and Bowe making up the rest of the backline, they will pose a real threat if they manage to get some good go-forward ball from their forwards.

It is in fact in the forward department that I feel the Argentinians will have the upper hand with guys such as Leguizamon and Fernandez Lobbe playing some outstanding and committed rugby for their country. The past weekend they lost to a French team that, at the moment, looks close to unstoppable. Although the margin was bigger than the Pumas would’ve hoped for, there still were some positives to take from the game. This Pumas side has, in a sense, really come from nowhere and to do as well as they have this year year, really has taken a Rocky Balboa – like effort. All credit to the players and coaching staff. I foresee this game to be really close, with forwards domination and the boot to win the game.

My Superbru prediction: Ireland by 4.

England vs South Africa

A win is a win is a win. Although it hasn’t always been pretty, the Boks have managed to win both their games so far. Coach Meyer has largely stuck to his winning formula of the past few weeks, with the very welcome inclusion of Elton Jantjies on the bench in the place of Morne Steyn. Thus far Patrick Lambie hasn’t been at his best but I expect him to fire over the weekend. Furthermore expect Francois Louw to once more be the leading man in the pack, together with on-form Etzebeth and, once again finding some form, Willem Alberts. I foresee the Bok pack to be too strong for the English in both the scrum and the line-outs.

Stuart Lancaster can really feel dissapinted with the loss against the severly under-form Aussies over the past weekend. The English really have the potential to be a big contender at the next World Cup and Stuart Lancaster looks calm and collected enough to get them there, but first they have to be a more consistent and clinical team. Coach Lancaster has made some changes to the team that lost this past weekend, but expect captain Robshaw to be the standout man, and his dual with Francois Louw should be one for the books. In the midfield de Villiers and de Jongh will have their hands full with the likes of Tuilagi and Barrit, who both are strong ball runners. Even though I foresee the game to be played predominantly among the forwards, let’s hope for a sunny and clear day at Twickenham with some exciting running rugby.

My Superbru prediction: Springboks by 7.

Wales vs New Zealand

Poor, poor Wales… They’ve really had a few months they would like to forget quickly. Going from Six Nations champs to losing five in a row points to something being really wrong in their team setup. But what could be the problem? Maybe it’s caretaker coach Howley? Maybe it’s their captain Warburton? Maybe they chose the wrong players? It would seem to be a combination of these elements, but they’ll hope to sort this out as quickly as possible, given that their season only seems to get tougher and tougher. With coach Gatland back, they will look to the senior guys like Halfpenny, Roberts, Rees and Warburton to lead from the front.

They face an All Black team, that have all their big guns back this coming weekend. They welcome back the likes of Dagg, mercurial playmaker Carter, and fearless leader McCaw. In spite of these guys being missing this past weekend, the All Blacks still rather easily disposed of Italy. Their squad depth and player management will leave all other international teams green with envy. They face a Welsh team who will feel the pressure mounting and who will be more than short of confidence, given their recent loss tho minnow team Samoa. Look out for Dagg, Smith, Carter, McCaw, Read… hell, just keep watch over all of them as they have the capacity to run riot from any part of the field. Poor, poor Wales… Their luck won’t turn this weekend.

My Superbru prediction: All Blacks by 16.

Other internationals this weekend:

Scotland vs Tonga = Scotland by 13.

France vs Samoa = France by 14 (Watch out for Clerc, Michalak, Picamoles, and Nyanga this weekend!)

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by Neels

Looking forward

November 14, 2012 in November Internationals, rugby

via Google

In the first round of this year’s November international we were treated with some fine and some less fine performances. At the current stage their is a bit of a stalemate between the Southern and Northern hemisphere teams. Here is what we can expect in Round 2: 

Italy vs New Zealand

This past weekend the All Blacks reiterated why they are a force to be reckoned with. Even with a side showcasing 10 changes they managed to keep momentum and even though Scotland at times became threatening, the All Blacks kept their cool and managed to win the game quite comfortably in the end.

Italy on the other hand managed to scrape home narrowly against minnow team Tonga. I foresee that they will receive a major beating come Saturday. The All Blacks will most likely be without flanker Andrew Thompson due to suspension, but their squad isn’t lacking in depth and therefore it shouldn’t be a problem for them. Expect Dan Carter to once again be the center of attention as he masterfully controls the game from number 10 (once he comes on off the bench).

My Superbru prediction: All Blacks by at least 24.

England vs Australia

England managed to convincingly beat Fiji over the past weekend and even though Fiji is often considered as a ‘minnow’ team, England showed why Stuart Lancaster and they as team have some potential for the future. They come up against Australia, who in my opinion were lucky to only lose by 33-6 against France.

Robbie Deans’ bad run still continues and I don’t think that this team has the potential or the depth to turn this poor form around very soon. Pouring on to their misery is the suspension of Rob Simmons posing an even bigger challenge to the depth of this injury depleted squad.  I personally feel that this game will largely be won or lost by the kickers or maybe if the weather holds up we will be treated by some running rugby. Still I don’t think that England is the best team that they will come up against and the result should be relatively close.

My Superbru prediction: England by 6.

France vs Argentina

Let me begin by admitting that Argentina has really surprised me this year. Getting the chance to play more international rugby, they’ve taken the challenge by the throat and showed some big guns (excuse me for getting poetically a little loose here!) Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe has really led the team well and this Argentine team will continue to upset some larger rugby playing nations in the future. For the upcoming round they’ve made a few changes to accommodate more experience against a France team who looked particularly dangerous against the Australians.

As I stated earlier, I think that the Aussies were lucky to only lose by 27 points. Freddy Michalak was extraordinary as pivot and combine with that Yannick Nyanga relishing his return to international rugby; all resulting in the Wallabies having their hands full. This will be the third time that France and Argentina play each other in 2012. Being equal on one win each. Although the Argentines are not to be underestimated I still feel that France should win this game. There is something different to the style and morale of France as team since coach Saint Andre took over from Marc Lievremont. In round two we will be treated with more of Les Bleus’ flair!

My Superbru prediction: France by 9.

 South Africa vs Scotland

The Springboks overturned a halftime deficit to eventually beat Ireland by 4. It wasn’t a pretty game, but as they say: a win is a win. As Springbok supporters we are very loyal to the jersey but we are also very critical. So then the question: What was the problem? I’ll limit it to two elements: silly mistakes and bad discipline. Maybe we can blame referee Barnes? But all in all we have to agree that we were our own worst enemies. Coach Heyneke Meyer has made two changes to the starting lineup: Juan de Jongh at 13 and Gurthro Steenkamp coming in to replace the Beast.

The only changes I still think should be considered is Jaco Taute getting a run at 15, Lwazi Mvovo over Francois Hougaard and Elton Jantjies on the bench. I’m glad that Pat Lambie is getting an extended run and although he missed a few kicks I’m not too worried as the often wet and damp fields really pose challenges to the kicker in terms of getting power from their planting feet. I foresee that he will make a huge difference come Saturday.

The Springboks face a Scottish team who will be looking to make amends for the past weekend’s thrashing. And still imprinted in the mind of every Springbok fan would be the previous European tour where we managed to start with a win only to fall short against Scotland. On any given day this Scottish team shouldn’t be underestimated and with the likes of newcomer Tim Visser they should be watched carefully. Still I feel that Scotland isn’t as threatening (I’m stating this very carefully) as Ireland and the Boks should be able to win the game.

My Superbru prediction: Springboks by 8.

Other internationals

Wales vs Samoa = Wales by 8.

Last weekend I managed a success rate of 83%; let’s hope for full marks in round 2 and let’s hope the Bokke get off to a better start!

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by Neels

Changes to consider

November 10, 2012 in rugby

Later today the Springboks go up against Ireland in their first match of the end of the year tour and it will be interesting to see how the team fairs in the European conditions against arguably the better of the European sides.

Heyneke Meyer has largely stuck with his side that lost to the All Blacks at Soccer City with the exception of PatrIck Lambie being promoted to pivot in the starting lineup. Taking into account the number of injured players, I think that this team looks quite alright. I would however propose a few different selections to the starting lineup. Here they are:

Lwazi Mvovo over Francois Hougaard

This year has not been close to the form that saw him turnout for the Boks under former coach Pieter de Villiers. With that the fact that Hougaard, despite his eagerness to be part and make difference, is not a specialist wing. Therefore I would rather have chosen Mvovo, also taking into account that the European conditions will ask a lot of questions of the player who is not a specialist in his position. Further more Hougaard will todaynplay against Tommy Bowe who has, since coming back from injury, been on fire for his province Ulster.

Juan de Jongh over Jaco Taute

Jaco Taute is a great prospect for the future, but I don’t believe that it should be at outside centre. Rather I’d choose him at fullback. Juan de Jongh brings more experience to the team, and considering the midfield that the Boks will be up against; even without O’Driscoll they will be a handful. Should Taute even once be trapped flat footed, the Boks will be on trouble in defense.

I still feel that the Boks should win by about 4 points, but I will not underestimate this Irish side. They will not be the same team that got thrashed by the All Blacks earlier in the year.

 

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by Neels

November Internationals Round 1

November 9, 2012 in rugby

 

It’s that time of year again where the heavyweights of the Southern and Northern hemispheres go head to head. Maybe to see who is the best of the best, but then again, usually the end of year tours are used by coaches to blood new talent and try some new combinations. At least that’s the way that some coaches approach these tours. Let’s take a look at the upcoming round.

Ireland vs South Africa

Ireland look to be one of the tougher oppositions that the Boks will face on this outgoing tour. Following their Heineken Cup and Rabodirect Pro 12 campaings show that the Irish provinces are no short of potential. They are short of some of their big names through injury (Kearney, O’Driscoll to name a few), but still they shouldn’t be underestimated. Jamie Heaslip is an inspirational player and will do well as captain. Johnny Sexton controls the game well as pivot and Tommy Bowe has looked more than hungry and on fire since coming back from injury.

On the other end of the spectrum I think that Pat Lambie will relish his chance to finally play in the starting lineup. JP Pietersen will look to continue the form he showed before getting injured and a guy like Francois Louw will bring a lot to the team as one of the European based Springboks. Still I would like to see a few changes in the Bok starting lineup: Mvovo instead of Hougaard at 11, since Mvovo is a specialist wing; and I would’ve chosen Juan de Jongh over Jaco Taute. De Jongh would’ve provided much needed experience in the midfield where I foresee the Irish to be a handful with the likes of Darcy and Earls.

My Superbru prediction: South Africa by 4.

France vs Australia

The French has always been one of those enigmatic teams; here they lose against a minnow, there they thrash a heavyweight – you just never how it will go with them. The French will miss their inspirational captain Dusautoir, but still they boast a team with more than enough experience with the likes of Florian Fritz at 13, Vincent Clerc at 11, and Yannick Nyanga at 6. If you believe that Southern Hemisphere rugby is stronger (and I do!) then Freddy Michalak’s experience, picked up with the Sharks, will be invaluable to them as a team.

Australia hasn’t looked too good this year. Not even on Super Rugby level. But in spite of that they’ve managed to arm wrestle the almighty All Blacks to a draw in their last encounter. Under fire Wallabies coach Robbie Deams has largely stuck to his mediocre formula (not that I blame him) due to injury and lack op depth. An Aussie win will depend on the likes of Ashley-Cooper, Beale, Hooper and Sharpe coming to the party and leading from the front.

Superbru prediction: France by 6

Scotland vs New Zealand

The past few weeks hasn’t looked good for Scotland with injuries and injury scares being the headlines from their camp. On a provincial level their teams haven’t done all that well in the past month or so, and I don’t foresee that this will change come Sunday when they face the All Blacks. When looking through their team sheet they do have enough international experience with the likes of Sean Lamont, Mike Blair, Jim Hamilton and Ross Ford. But the question remains – will they able to pull a rabbit from a hat this weekend?

What more can be said about the Almighty All Blacks? Love them, hate them or love to hate them, you have to agree that they truly are the form team in the world; living up to their World Champions tag. Israel Dagg is probably one of the best counter attackers from the back. Team that up with the likes of Jane and Savea and you have one very potent cocktail. Dan Carter is (to my mind) the best flyhalf in the world. Richie McCaw’s contribution in the no. 7 jersey can’t even be described. Whether you agree with his methods or not; this man is everywhere! Even though coach Hansen has made 10 changes to his team, they are still fielding a more than fierce starting 15.

My Superbru prediction: All Blacks by 15

Other Internationals to be played this coming weekend:

Italy vs Tonga = Italy by 12

England vs Fiji = England by 13

Wales vs Argentina = Wales by 6

 

Until next time

Neels