Two Cents

To be honest, I did not think the Boks would win on Saturday. Its not that I’m unpatriotic or anything. I just felt that what I had seen so far this year from PdV and co. that the Boks did not have the coaching and leadership (from a managerial point) to succeed. I am glad I got it wrong. No matter how badly the Boks play, or how much the coaching staff or players irritate us or upset us, we still want the Springboks to win. Even the most hard lining-anti-PdV rugby supporter would agree with that. Its still the Springboks, its still the Green & Gold, its still the pride of a nation.

Sports Billy gave a pretty accurate account of the Springboks vs England. Very little can be said about the Springboks: they dominated the line outs, with Bakkies Botha, Victor Matfield, Jaun Smith and Pierre Spies as possible jumpers, could it be any other way? They tackled hard and ran hard, very seldom running one man on his own. The cleaners where fast to the rucks and not only the forwards but the back got into the think of things. The Boks did not kick so aimlessly as the last couple of tests and there was almost always a few players chasing the ball down. We even held our own at scrum time.

But right there is the interesting point to ponder on: why did we do so well against an excellent scrumming nation like England. That front row dominated the Aussies, gave the All Black a very hard time and somehow did not do much, if anything against us. You want to tell me doc and the beast somehow got everything right. I’m not so sure.

Please don’t misunderstand, our pack scrummed well. Very well, actually. I think they had a couple of tricks to initially put the English off their dominance at scum time: delaying their setting and engaging. Maybe a little of parallel movement so that they couldn’t get a good hit. The fist few scrums on England ball resulted in free kicks and a penalty. The poms complained, the ref then warned the South African scrum but by that time they had already lost their dominance in the scrums.

I also think the English had a little mental misfire or overload. They gave away so many stupid penalties. As disciplined as they were against Australia and the All Blacks, so undisciplined were they against the Boks. In my previous blog I mentioned the thing that I thought was important to win a World Cup, the most important having a great defence but with that goes patients and discipline. This is a young English team and there is enough time for this to develop before the World Cup in New Zealand next year.

The Springboks on the other hand, are not in such a good place. Yes, the winning bonus and the positive end to the tour and the year helps but not much else has changed. Same predictable game plan, same defensive patterns, same coaching philosophy, same old story.

Next year might be as unsuccessful as this year, and being a World Cup year, is more than unacceptable. Unless Pieter de Villiers has some kind of enlightenment the Boks will play the same game plan. You can’t bludgeon your way through a WC. You need more than just experience, you need a good game plan and structures, and back up plans, and adaptability, and things I don’t feel this coach will bring to the table.

Again, can we replace him? No, we cant. No coach, not even Jake White, could do much with this team now. The new coach should have been given the year end tour to work in his philosophy and find some measure of where he had the team and what needed to change.

I think as South African rugby supporters we must bite the bullet and give PdV our support. Even if its just because there is no one else until after the WC in September 2011… or atleast put our voices behind the Boks.

I though I would start with some facts, since most of what I say after this is here-say, rumours and opinions. Below I have listed the dates, countries and score in the last 13 months. In brackets I have put the Matrix ranking, which is used by some bookies. It closely relates the IRB rankings. This gives us an idea of the Springboks’ fall from grace. Please take some time to see the ranking of the teams we played against and how we have struggled against low ranking teams. I could write the All Blacks’ comparative scores on their NH tours but that would be a bit too much.

In the Last 13 Months:

Played: 18            Won: 8*            Lost: 10

* 3 Wins against Italy, consistently tanked number ten in the world.

November 2010

20^th, Scotland (8) vs South Africa (3), 21 – 17

13^th, Wales (7) vs South Africa (3), 25 – 29 (Come from behind win)

6^th, Ireland (9) vs South Africa (3), 21 – 23 (We won thanks to Roan O Gara)

September 2010

4^th, South Africa (3) vs Australia (2), 39 – 41

August 2010

28^th, South Africa (3) vs Australia (2), 44 – 31

21^st, South Africa (3) vs New Zealand (1), 22 – 29

July 2010

24^th, Australia (3) vs South Africa (2), 30 – 13

17^th, New Zealand (1) vs South Africa (2), 31 – 17

10^th, New Zealand (1) vs South Africa (2), 32 – 12

June 2010

28^th, South Africa (2) vs Italy (10), 55 – 11

19^th, South Africa (2) vs Italy (10), 29 – 13

12^th, South Africa (2) vs France (4), 42 – 17

5^th, Wales (8) vs South Africa (2), 31 – 34

November 2009

28^th, Ireland (4) vs South Africa (1), 15 – 10

21^st, Italy (10) vs South Africa (1), 10 – 32

17^th, Saracens (Club Team) vs South Africa (1), 24 – 23

13^th, France (5) vs South Africa (1), 20 – 13

6^th, Leicester Tiger (Club Team) vs South Africa (1), 22 – 17

As an optimistic realist I find the current coaching technique and current game plan implemented by the coaching staff to have more holes in as an old rusty sieve. The defence, as far as I can tell has no real structure. The broken umbrella defensive pattern opens more holes than closes. The opposition seems to set up mismatches all too often.

No team has ever won a World Cup, or any trophy, with a poor defensive plan. On the other side, though is true that a stingy defence has won almost all the World Cups, having a brilliant offensive game has not. The New Zealand All Blacks are the best example of this. So Pdivvy shouldn’t be too worried that he has trouble with his attacking game. He should be worried that he has no defence AND no attack. This kick and chase game plan is based on the opposition making mistakes and the Boks preying on these mistakes. Unfortunately it is an easy game plan to counter: practice catching and add one or two players at the back. Thus setting up a stronger counter attack and covering any pressure from the ‘attacking’ team. I write ‘attacking’ because once you kick the ball away you loose possession and therefore it is impossible to attack anymore.

So obviously I think the coaching staff are useless. What about the players? We are very fortunate to have such a deep and wide talent pool to pick from. We have so much talent in this country we should almost be allowed to enter a South African A & B side. And I recon we might possibly end up playing each other in the final.

So why do the players on the field look so useless? Well, in my opinion, it’s a combination of picking players out of form, picking the wrong combinations, incorrect bleeding of youngsters and too much loyalties to the old follies in the team. I rate Bakkies & Victor as the all time lock pairing, I think John Smit is a legend and one of the best captains in the modern game, I am one of the biggest Juan de Villiers fans, have know and admired him since school, I think Spies is a freak… but all these players, and others too, are so comfortable with their position and their status in the team that they think they just have to pitch up.

So what’s going to happen on Saturday? I would love a miracle. I hate losing to the English, even more than losing to the Aussies, but unless England play worse than we did last Saturday vs. Scotland, we are going to get a hiding. We don’t have the game plan to counter theirs. We don’t have the muscle to dominate them. We don’t have the flair to beat them. They have showed some real growth in the last year. Even their loss to the All Blacks was more their own doing.

Oh, and just a revelation: PdV will keep his position going into the 2011 World Cup, regardless of what happens Saturday or until the World Cup.

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